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Russian state television bluntly presented an idea that is understood in Cuba more through experience than intellect: if Washington truly puts pressure on the Island, Moscow is not in a position to "save" it as it did during Soviet times.
In the program International Review from Rossiya 24, broadcast on January 9, 2026, historian Viktor Kheifets, director of the Ibero-American Studies Center at St. Petersburg State University, acknowledged that Russia could only support Cuba "politically" if the conflict with the United States escalates.
Kheifets acknowledged that there is financial aid, but emphasized that it is nowhere near what the support from the USSR used to be. He described a situation that connects with the daily life of Cubans: an "exhausted" economy and conditions "worse than in the last fifty years," amidst blackouts, shortages, and a crisis that is felt both at the table and in the streets.
The toughest point came when Kheifets provided a concrete example, pointing to a potential “energy blockade” by Trump. According to his argument, Russia would hardly be able to break such a measure with ships, as that would require military escorts for oil tankers, and with resources diverted to other priorities, he expressed “serious doubts” that Moscow is prepared for that.
"Politically, of course, we will continue to support... at the UN and other organizations," he added, but he made it clear that this backing might not be sufficient without economic and military muscle.
In that same program, the political scientist Dmitry Rozental, director of the Institute of Latin America at the Russian Academy of Sciences, went further by discussing Cuba as a likely target of a pressure strategy.
He recalled that Washington has been trying to change the power in the Island since Eisenhower and suggested that, following the Venezuelan precedent, Cuba "could be easier" due to its geographical proximity and the possibility of internal fractures.
In his analysis, the method does not necessarily have to be a direct intervention, but rather to "tighten the economic noose," especially through the energy sector.
Rozental also mentioned a fact that translates to hours without electricity in Havana: approximately one-third of the oil that arrives in Cuba is of Venezuelan origin, so cutting or limiting that flow would aim—according to him—to provoke an economic deterioration capable of destabilizing the regime without a single shot being fired.
He also stated that this line aligns with the agenda of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, due to its political impact in Florida.
However, the proposal is not new. The specialist Serguéi Sukhankin also stated in an analysis published by Eurasia Daily Monitor (The Jamestown Foundation) that for the Kremlin, Cuba today functions more as a political symbol than as a practical ally that can be protected.
The warning indicated that if Washington increases the pressure, Moscow would have little room beyond rhetoric, constrained by the war in Ukraine and its economic and military limits.
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