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Cuba could face an even graver energy crisis than that experienced during the so-called "Special Period" of the 1990s, with direct consequences for daily life, food production, and the basic functioning of the country.
The alert was issued in a thread on X by the Cuban economist Pedro Monreal, who warns that a total or significantly major interruption of fuel imports would push the Island into a critical situation combining economic hardship and food insecurity.
According to Monreal's recent analysis, in the absence of a diplomatic solution, a forced interruption of fuel imports, primarily crude oil and its derivatives, would lead to a severe drop in energy availability, with levels even lower than those recorded in the 1990s, when the collapse of the Soviet Union left Cuba virtually without external support.
The economist emphasizes that, in recent years, the levels of crude oil imports and national production have been similar. However, this apparent stability is misleading. If imports were to stop, the total availability of crude oil would decrease by about half, a blow that the Cuban energy system would hardly be able to absorb.
Although Cuba extracts more crude oil today than during the Special Period, this advantage has a limited scope. Domestic oil, due to its characteristics, is mainly used in thermal power plants and in energy-intensive industrial activities, such as cement production. Its impact on refining to produce essential derivatives is minimal, leaving the country extremely dependent on imported fuel.
The problem worsens when analyzing the composition of the energy matrix. Monreal points out that the cessation of imports would affect different fossil fuels unequally. While crude oil destined for thermal power plants would experience relatively less impact, facilities characterized by significant obsolescence would see the availability of fuel oil, diesel, and gasoline severely compromised. This would have immediate effects on transportation, agriculture, food distribution, and basic services.
The most extreme scenario described by the economist is what's referred to as the "zero option," a point that Cuba did not reach during the Special Period but now seems to be a real possibility. It would entail, in his words, a combination of a "medieval configuration of the economic system" and a worsening of food insecurity, with a drastic regression in the living conditions of the population.
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