Expectations regarding a possible exit of Miguel Díaz-Canel from power in Cuba before the end of 2026 have surged strongly in international prediction markets, amid the worsening of the economic and energy crisis on the island.
The American platform Kalshi, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), raised the probabilities that the Cuban leader will leave his position before the end of the year by eight points, moving from 45% to 53% between January 27 and February 2.
The increase coincides with the worsening of the internal situation in Cuba and the growing isolation of the regime following the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on January 3.
According to analysts, the country is facing a critical situation due to the collapse of oil supplies from Venezuela, which could leave it without crude reserves in just a few weeks. Prolonged blackouts, food shortages, and social unrest are fueling expectations of an imminent political change.
In parallel, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, recently urged the Cuban regime to "negotiate a way out before it is too late," referring to preliminary contacts that, according to sources in Washington, may have started between both governments. However, the authorities in Havana deny any negotiations and maintain a defiant stance in the face of international pressure.
In addition to Kalshi, the platform Polymarket —also based in the United States— places the probability of Díaz-Canel leaving power before June 1 at 40%, and at 65% if the reference date is extended to December 31, 2026.
Both platforms utilize financial systems to gauge investor expectations regarding verifiable events, drawing from sources such as The New York Times, Reuters, Bloomberg, and Politico. In this case, the indicators reflect the growing consensus among international observers that the Cuban regime is experiencing its most fragile moment in decades.
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