The Spanish economic analyst and commentator Marc Vidal stated that Cuba is going through a phase that could signal the final collapse of the regime, describing a scenario of energy crisis, social decline, and structural exhaustion of the political and economic model implemented since 1959.
In a recent analysis shared on his digital platforms, Vidal stated that the island is facing a convergence of factors that have pushed the system to a breaking point: massive blackouts, fuel shortages, a decline in tourism, uncontrolled inflation, and an unprecedented migratory exodus.
According to the expert, the country never succeeded in building a self-sustaining economy but has historically relied on external allies.
First it was the Soviet Union, then Venezuela, and more recently energy agreements that have now practically come to a halt.
In his view, the model was designed to survive crises through external subsidies, not to address its structural flaws.
Vidal pointed out that the current energy collapse reflects the fragility that has accumulated over decades.
He cited official figures indicating that over 60 percent of the country could simultaneously be without electricity during peak demand hours, while several thermoelectric units remain out of service due to lack of fuel and maintenance.
The analyst also referred to the military conglomerate GAESA, which controls large sectors of the economy, from tourism to retail and banking.
According to leaked financial documents and international news reports, that structure would accumulate billions of dollars in assets, while the State faces shortages in maintaining basic services such as the electrical grid or the supply of medications.
For Vidal, the paradox lies in the fact that while the population faces increasing poverty, prolonged blackouts, and food shortages, an elite connected to the military apparatus concentrates significant resources beyond public scrutiny.
In that context, he questioned the narrative that attributes the depth of the current crisis solely to the U.S. embargo.
The economist emphasized that the mass emigration, estimated at a significant percentage of the population in recent years, represents another symptom of structural deterioration. This is compounded by social protests that, although suppressed by repression, reveal accumulated discontent.
In their view, the outcome does not depend solely on external factors or decisions made in Washington, but rather on the very architecture of the system, which was designed to maintain political control even in the midst of scarcity.
The analysis concludes that the regime is facing the most complex challenge in its recent history, with a weakened economy, a collapsed energy infrastructure, and a population increasingly pressured by a lack of opportunities and basic living conditions.
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