Related videos:
While in Cuba blackouts persist, transportation is brought to a standstill, and public services deteriorate, in Washington the debate no longer seems to focus solely on how to pressure the regime, but rather on what to do when the current model is no longer sustainable.
The Chargé d'Affaires of the United States in Havana, Mike Hammer, stated that his country has been working on scenarios for a transition in the island for some time and that there are concrete plans to manage the subsequent process.
“We have been thinking about a transition to a free Cuba for a long time. We have all sorts of plans on how it can be accomplished in the least chaotic way and transform a country that has been destroyed and where the economy does not function”, he stated in an interview with the newspaper ABC.
The phrase suggests a significant shift: it is not solely about sanctions or diplomatic pressure, but about structural planning for the "day after."
An exhausted model
Hammer stated that the internal conditions have changed and that the country is facing an unsustainable situation.
"This situation is not sustainable," he stated, describing a scenario marked by accumulated garbage in the streets, epidemiological outbreaks, and a crisis in basic services.
In its diagnosis, the energy infrastructure, healthcare system, water supply, transportation, and communications require a profound renewal.
Sectors that today show the accumulated wear and tear after decades of centralization and lack of strategic investment.
The diplomat also pointed to the current economic model, noting that tourism revenues were not allocated to strengthening the productive economy or improving public services.
"The money that was being generated from tourism (…) was not being reinvested in the economy. It was used to build more hotels," he stated, referring to the military conglomerate GAESA.
The critique suggests that an eventual transition would entail not only a political change but also a redistribution of economic power.
A transition without bloodshed
Hammer insisted that Washington's goal is not to provoke a violent collapse.
“We are looking for a peaceful solution where there is no bloodshed, where the people can live quietly,” he assured.
This insistence on a "less chaotic" transition aims to prevent a power vacuum that could lead to an institutional or migratory crisis.
According to the explanation, there would be actors within the system who are aware of the exhaustion of the current project.
“Within the Cuban system, there are individuals who realize that the project is coming to an end and who might be interested in making a change that they see as necessary,” he stated.
Without offering names or details, he hinted that Washington is considering scenarios where internal sectors could facilitate a gradual opening.
Reconstruction and Economic Potential
Hammer also projected an optimistic vision about the country's ability to recover if structural changes occur.
“I see the potential in Cubans; they solve everything. They have a great entrepreneurial spirit,” he said.
In his view, exile would play a key role, as would international investment.
“Imagine a government that is willing to invest in the economy; a situation where tourism could come that does not just benefit a group, but truly benefits the Cuban people, how wonderful that would be”, he stated.
Although he avoided setting deadlines, he left a phrase that reinforces his confidence in the speed of the process: “I believe it will happen in a way that will surprise us, a lot.”
Pressure as a precursor to the "day after"
The statements regarding planning come amidst a broader strategy driven by the Donald Trump administration that combines energy pressure, financial isolation, and discreet diplomacy.
According to ABC, citing sources in Washington, the plan includes choking off the energy supply to limit the maneuverability of the state apparatus, while exploring channels with actors within the system and with opposition sectors.
An executive order signed by Trump threatens sanctions against countries and entities that supply oil to Cuba. The pressure extends to shipping companies, insurers, and financial intermediaries.
With a demand close to 100,000 barrels per day for crude and derivatives and insufficient domestic production, the island is facing prolonged blackouts and partial paralysis of transportation and economic activity.
At the same time, Washington is said to have opened discreet channels with both figures connected to the royal power structure and opposition actors, in an effort to gauge a negotiated transition that avoids an abrupt collapse.
In that context, Hammer's words take on greater significance: pressure would not be an end in itself, but rather the mechanism to bring about a scenario whose subsequent phase—the institutional and economic reconstruction—would already be under consideration.
"Let's see if this pressure encourages them and makes them realize that there has to be another way," he stated.
The question is no longer just whether there will be change, but rather how and under what conditions it will be managed when the current model comes to an end.
Filed under: