The administration of President Donald Trump has activated a comprehensive strategy to compel political change in Cuba that combines energy suffocation, international financial pressure, and discreet contacts both within the system and with opposition sectors.
The goal, as revealed by the Spanish newspaper ABC citing sources in Washington, is to promote an orderly and controlled transition that prevents a chaotic collapse on the island.
The new phase began after the operation on January 3 in Venezuela, which culminated in the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The fall of Havana's main energy ally drastically upset the regional balance.
For years, Caracas provided subsidized oil that allowed the Cuban regime to sustain its economy and security apparatus. With that flow nearly cut off and under direct pressure from Washington on the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez, Havana's maneuvering space has been drastically reduced.
The central component of the strategy is the energy lock. Trump signed an executive order that threatens to impose tariffs on countries supplying crude oil to Cuba.
The pressure is not limited to governments: it extends to shipping companies, insurers, financial intermediaries, and ports that facilitate cargo shipments. Last week, the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted the oil tanker Ocean Mariner, which was transporting 84,579 barrels of Colombian fuel oil destined for the island, sending a clear signal that the energy blockade is being implemented in practice.
The internal impact is visible. Cuba consumes around 100,000 barrels daily between crude and derivatives, while its domestic production does not meet the demand for fuels for transport and economic activity.
Without sustained imports, the country is entering emergency mode: prolonged blackouts, paralyzed transportation, hospitals with limited resources, and widespread rationing.
According to the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights, 89% of the population considers itself to be in "extreme poverty," and 70% claim they cannot eat three times a day. More than a million Cubans have emigrated in the past decade, worsening the economic contraction and demographic decline.
However, the strategy is not limited to pressure. At the same time, Washington has opened discreet channels with figures in the real power circles in Cuba.
According to sources cited by ABC, the first relevant contact reportedly took place with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as “El Cangrejo,” the grandson of Raúl Castro and associated with the military conglomerate GAESA, which controls key sectors of the economy.
The logic behind these supposed maneuvers would be to identify interlocutors with decision-making power and internal control in a potential transitional scenario.
At the same time, the White House is having very discreet conversations with leaders and activists of the opposition, both inside and outside the island. The dual channel —with system actors and with opponents— aims to gauge scenarios and prevent a power vacuum that could lead to disorder or mass migration to the United States.
The priority in Cuba, unlike Venezuela, would not be a capture operation against Miguel Díaz-Canel, but rather to explore a negotiated exit that preserves administrative stability while introducing structural changes.
Washington is aware that an abrupt collapse could trigger a new migration crisis towards Florida, so the balancing act involves suffocating the state apparatus without causing an uncontrollable explosion.
Cuba's designation as an "unusual and extraordinary threat" has provided the legal basis to tighten the oil embargo. Russia and China are watching the situation with caution, while international organizations warn about the social deterioration on the island.
In the offices of Washington, the question is no longer whether the pressure will take effect, but rather who within the system will be willing to activate an exit when the fuel runs out and the economy enters a prolonged paralysis.
The Trump administration has decided to accelerate the Cuban file with a combination of pressure at sea and quiet diplomacy on land.
The outcome will largely depend on the internal dynamics that begin to shift beneath the surface of the fractured power in Havana.
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