The Cuban regime is experiencing one of the most fragile moments in its recent history, and according to the renowned analyst and expert on Latin America, Carlos Malamud, the political system that has governed the island since 1959 may not survive beyond the next few years.
Beyond the visible economic and social collapse in the daily lives of Cubans, the specialist pointed out two less discussed but key factors for understanding the current moment: the adaptation of the power elites to survive a potential change and the possibility that any transition could arise from within the system itself.
In an article published in El Mundo, Malamud described a country in deep decline, marked by prolonged blackouts, fuel shortages, lack of food and medicine, and the deterioration of basic services such as healthcare and waste collection.
However, the most striking contrast is found between the situation of the population and the standard of living of those who make up the political, military, and economic elite of the country.
According to the expert, while a large part of Cuban society faces survival conditions, the elites connected to power maintain privileged access to goods and services, which is evident in exclusive neighborhoods, electric vehicles, and their own energy systems.
In many cases, moreover, these elites have found a way to achieve economic adaptation through the indirect control of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (Mipymes), a sector that has grown in recent years on the island.
The phenomenon reveals a silent transformation within the Cuban model. For decades, the official discourse condemned any form of private initiative as a source of inequality. Today, however, numerous ventures operate thanks to family or political connections with figures from the establishment.
For some analysts, this process could be interpreted as an attempt by certain power sectors to secure their economic position in a potential scenario following the current system.
In political transition processes, especially following long periods of authoritarian rule, it is relatively common for sectors of the ruling elites to attempt to adapt to the new scenario even before the change occurs.
In various Eastern European countries following the collapse of the Soviet bloc, or during certain transitions in Latin America, political leaders, military figures, and businesspeople connected to power sought to economically or politically reinvent themselves in order to maintain influence within the new system.
Such movements often involve the accumulation of assets, control over emerging sectors of the economy, or the establishment of business networks that allow former regime figures to maintain significant positions even after a political transformation.
This behavior is not unusual in contexts of political transition. In various countries with prolonged authoritarian systems, some of the ruling elites have sought to economically reconvert themselves before structural changes, preserving power and influence within new rules of the game.
In the Cuban context, the expansion of Mipymes linked to circles close to power has raised questions about who could dominate the economic fabric if a greater opening were to occur.
At the same time, Malamud raised another scenario gaining traction among international observers: the possibility that any political transformation may not initially come from the traditional opposition, but from internal sectors of the regime itself.
In that regard, the analyst echoed information published by U.S. media, which suggests alleged exploratory contacts between individuals close to the Cuban government and the administration of President Donald Trump to assess possible scenarios for political change on the island. Trump himself and several officials from his administration have confirmed the existence of such contacts.
The logic behind this approach is based on a geopolitical calculation. An abrupt transition could lead to internal instability and a new migration crisis towards the United States, especially towards Florida.
For this reason, some strategists consider a gradual transformation driven by figures with experience within the system and the ability to maintain some institutional control during the process to be more viable.
The question, however, lies in who could take on that role. Among the hypotheses circulating in academic and diplomatic circles, there are mentions of both influential military figures within power structures and civilian leaders with broader international networks.
Some analysts do not rule out the possibility that sectors linked to the Castro family itself may attempt to influence any process of reorganization of the power they have held violently and illegitimately for more than 67 years.
What seems increasingly evident, according to Malamud, is that the political and economic model built over decades is showing signs of deep exhaustion. The combination of economic crisis, rising inequality, and international pressure has created a situation that many describe as a genuine end of an era.
In this context, the major question is not only when a change might occur in Cuba, but who will lead it and to what extent the current power elites will be able to adapt to the new phase that will eventually unfold for the island.
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