The Trump administration is actively exploring a potential economic agreement with Cuba that would include a negotiated exit for President Miguel Díaz-Canel, the permanence of the Castro family on the island, and agreements in the ports, energy, and tourism sectors, according to a report by this Sunday.
The conversations, which are taking place amid unprecedented energy pressure on Havana, have included the possibility that Washington may ease some sanctions and expand the ability of Americans to travel to Cuba.
President Donald Trump would not need Congress's approval to ease such restrictions. The exact details of the potential agreement and its timeline are not known.
Trump has made public statements multiple times over the past few days. On Friday, in an interview with CNN, he stated: "Cuba will fall very soon. They are eager to reach an agreement." On Saturday, at the "Shield of the Americas" Summit held in Miami, he was even more direct: "Cuba is at the end of the line. They have no money. They have no oil. They want to negotiate, and they are negotiating with Marco Rubio and me."
According to reports from Axios confirmed by multiple sources, the Secretary of State has held secret conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the 41-year-old grandson of Raúl Castro, nicknamed "El Cangrejo," bypassing the official channels of the designated leader Miguel Díaz-Canel. A senior administration official was explicit about the goal: "The position of the U.S. government is that the regime has to go".
The maximum pressure strategy —named "Cubastroika" by USA Today— intensified following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which cut off the supply of over 26,000 daily barrels of Venezuelan oil to Cuba.
On January 29, Trump signed the Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency and invoking the IEEPA to threaten tariffs on any country that supplies crude oil to the island. Mexico, the second largest supplier, suspended its shipments on January 9.
The situation on the ground is devastating for the Cuban population. This Saturday, the blackouts affected up to 63% of the country, with an energy deficit of 2,046 MW and only 1,015 MW available against a demand of 3,050 MW. Cuba only produces 40% of its own fuel and relies almost entirely on imported oil for its electrical grid.
Analysts indicate that Cuba could offer access to its nickel and cobalt reserves—strategic minerals of interest to Washington—in exchange for relief from sanctions. According to Foreign Policy, "Cuba has significant deposits of nickel and cobalt, which would be appealing to the Trump administration, given its priority to secure access to strategic minerals."
The Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío admitted that there have been contacts, but downplayed their significance: "We have exchanged messages, we have embassies, we have had communications, but we cannot say that we have had a dialogue table". Cuban state television described Trump's claims as "tales" promoted by Rubio.
Trump jokingly remarked on Saturday about the negotiating skills of his Secretary of State: "He will take an hour off and finish a deal on Cuba".
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