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Oil expert Jorge Piñón, director of the Energy Program for Latin America and the Caribbean at the University of Texas, warned that the energy crisis in Cuba could escalate to a critical point in the coming weeks if a new fuel supply does not materialize.
According to his explanation, the island is approaching what he described as a "zero hour" due to a lack of oil, a scenario that would jeopardize the operation of essential sectors such as electricity generation, transportation, and a significant part of economic activity.
In statements to the program "News as They Are," from Radio Martí, the specialist indicated that Cuba is facing a severe shortage of diesel and other oil derivatives, worsened by the lack of new shipments in recent weeks.
According to the explanation, Cuba consumes approximately 20,000 barrels of diesel daily, but since early January it has only received a small shipment from Mexico. Since then, no new oil or derivative tankers have been detected entering Cuban ports.
At the same time, several ships loaded with Russian fuel remain virtually stalled in the Atlantic, awaiting authorization or a political decision that would allow them to unload on the island.
The expert believes that the current energy crisis cannot be attributed solely to the reduction of shipments from allies such as Venezuela, Russia, or Mexico, but also to the structural deterioration of the Cuban electric system.
The country's thermoelectric plants operate with outdated technology, have suffered years of neglect, and run under constant limitations, resulting in increasingly widespread and frequent blackouts.
The outlook, according to Piñón, resembles the worst moments of the "Special Period" of the 1990s, albeit with a much more fragile economy and an even more deteriorated energy infrastructure.
The Mipymes cannot resolve the crisis
In response to the decline in state supply, the Cuban government recently opened the possibility for micro, small, and medium enterprises (Mipymes) to import fuel privately.
However, Piñón believes that this scheme faces serious logistical and economic limitations.
The specialist explained that the operations are conducted using isotanks with a capacity of approximately 6,600 gallons (about 154 barrels), which are procured in the United States and shipped from ports such as Port Everglades or Houston to the Port of Mariel.
From there, the fuel must be transported by road inland. However, even that process encounters clear obstacles, as Cuba lacks the diesel needed to move the trucks that are supposed to distribute that fuel.
The recent rise in diesel prices also complicates the situation.
“If these isotanks were bought or acquired two weeks ago, when diesel prices were below 3 dollars a gallon… now it’s a very, very difficult situation, as the price of diesel, at least here in the United States, has exceeded 4 or 4.50 dollars a gallon,” he explained.
This increase raises the costs of both fuel and the maritime transport that brings it to Cuba. In light of this situation, the expert posed a question regarding the real impact of these costs.
“My question is: can everyday Cubans afford these high prices?”, he questioned.
The specialist also emphasized that installing an operational isotank in Cuba - including the fuel it arrives filled with, the physical infrastructure, security, fencing, lighting, and the technical requirements demanded by the firefighters - could cost around $50,000.
But even if that initial investment is successfully overcome, the underlying problem persists.
“When that first isotank is emptied, how is the fuel replenished? Is it replaced with another full isotank, or is a refilling system designed with tanker trucks?”, she wondered.
Legal restrictions complicate imports
In addition to logistical and economic obstacles, the private import model faces significant legal limitations.
The licenses granted by U.S. authorities for these operations stipulate that there can be no involvement from entities of the Cuban government, in accordance with regulations set by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
This means that imported fuel cannot pass through terminals or networks controlled by state-owned companies like CUPET or CIMEX without violating the terms of those licenses.
The problem is that nearly all the storage and distribution infrastructure for fuels in Cuba is owned by the State.
In that context, even if an attempt were made to expand the model with small tankers to supply multiple isocontainers for Mipymes, the vessels would have to unload at state terminals, which would prevent operation under U.S. regulations.
For Piñón, the outcome is a dead end.
Even multiplying the number of isotank containers, the impact would be minimal compared to national demand. Each unit represents just "a drop in the ocean" compared to the country's daily consumption.
The two possible outcomes
The expert had already warned on January 30 that March could become the most critical month for Cuba if a new shipment of fuel did not arrive.
He then spoke of a possible “zero situation” regarding fuel if a tanker was not spotted on the horizon.
Given this scenario, Piñón believes that the only realistic solution involves some form of negotiation with the United States.
The specialist proposed two possible scenarios.
The first would be for the United States to directly supply Cuba with refined products, such as diesel, gasoline, or liquefied petroleum gas, from its inventories.
The second option would be for Washington to grant a specific exemption to Venezuela to allow Caracas to send crude or derivatives to the island under a controlled scheme.
In any case, Piñón believes that the most rational approach would be to send already refined fuels.
Cuba, he explained, cannot afford to spend weeks processing crude oil in outdated refineries just when its reserves are at their limit.
The island "cannot afford to waste 20 or 30 days on internal refining processes with outdated facilities," he warned.
If an agreement is not reached in the short term, the country could face a phase of near-total paralysis, lacking sufficient fuel to sustain the electrical system or transportation.
Record blackouts amid the crisis
The seriousness of the energy situation is also reflected in the electrical system.
For this Wednesday, the Electric Union (UNE) anticipates a deficit of nearly 1,900 megawatts (MW) during the peak evening hours, one of the highest figures recorded recently.
The day before, the electricity service was affected throughout the entire day, with the maximum impact reaching 1,875 MW at 7:20 PM, according to the official report from the National Electroenergy System.
Breakdowns at several thermoelectric plants, units under maintenance, and limitations in thermal generation continue to reduce production capacity.
In Havana, on Tuesday, the electrical service was interrupted for more than 22 hours, according to the Electric Company of the capital.
The prolonged disruptions have heightened social unrest, and in recent days, noise protests and demonstrations have been reported in several municipalities of Havana, including Cerro, Marianao, Plaza de la Revolución, and El Vedado.
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