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The Cuban Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Arechavaleta, a doctor in Political Science and researcher at the Iberoamericana University in Mexico, warned in an interview with CiberCuba that the situation on the island could lead to a "failed state" similar to Haiti if the regime's leadership insists on maintaining the current chaotic state of energy crisis without yielding to internal and external pressures.
The analyst, specialized in Latin American political transitions, proposed five possible scenarios for Cuba: reinforced authoritarian continuity, negotiated partial reforms, authoritarian break and social crisis, total collapse and radical reconfiguration, and democratic transition.
He considered that the scenario of negotiated partial reforms is currently the most likely, given the context of conversations between the Trump administration and associates of the regime. However, the extreme scenario is also possible.
"I would link it to the persistence of this state of crisis, with the leadership wanting to continue maintaining this chaotic state of energy crisis," he said. "That could imply the ineffectiveness of internal institutions and the basic, rapid processes of supply, living conditions, and norms and rules of coexistence."
"In such a chaotic scenario, what tends to happen is that multiple actors with divergent agendas emerge, which will complicate the reconstruction of a political order and stability. This is a situation where anyone can come in to contest agendas, spaces, the very issue of property, and so on. It would be an ungovernable chaos. It would imply the collapse of the regime, but also the collapse of public life."
Rodríguez Arechavaleta was explicit: "Total collapse implies the disintegration of central power and the loss of state control." This is the case of Haiti, which has been in that limbo of failed state for a very long time.
"It would be a social implosion where indiscipline is the general expression," he noted. "Everyone would lose. We all lose. Then, the leadership recalculates and reconsiders. I believe what we have ahead of us is a negotiation process."
Rodríguez Arechavaleta dismissed Díaz-Canel as a relevant figure in any process of change: "I believe there are reasons to think that he is not included in a package of reforms as president of Cuba."
According to the analyst, real decisions are made from the military top brass and GAESA, not from the formal government. This is also reflected in the dilemma of the Cuban Armed Forces in light of the crisis.
Last Monday, Trump publicly confirmed at a conference in Doral the existence of negotiations: "Cuba is at the end of the line. They have no money. They have no oil. They want to negotiate and are negotiating with Marco Rubio and me."
The Cuban regime formally denies the existence of such conversations, although Díaz-Canel has reaffirmed his willingness to engage in dialogue "on all topics" with respect to sovereignty.
Rodríguez Arechavaleta left no room for ambiguity about the times: "We are close to a change."
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