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The Kalshi prediction market published this Wednesday that Marco Rubio has become the favorite to win the presidency of the United States in 2028, with a 19% probability, surpassing both Gavin Newsom and J. D. Vance by one percentage point, who are both at 18%. The total volume traded in that market exceeds 17 million dollars (USD).
The announcement from Kalshi came with a direct message on social media: “Breaking: Marco Rubio is now the odds favorite to win the 2028 presidency.” However, on Polymarket, the platform with the highest volume, with 388 million dollars traded, Vance still leads with 21%, followed by Newsom with 17% and Rubio with 14%, reflecting variations between platforms but confirming the upward trend of the Secretary of State.
The rise of Rubio in the prediction markets has a clear catalyst: his role as the chief architect of the military operation on January 3 that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores in Venezuela. Following that operation, his presidential odds doubled, increasing from 4% to 9% in just a few weeks. Rubio described the action as “surgical” and of national interest, and warned the world: “The message here should be for the world: don’t mess with this president.”
To this momentum was added an informal meeting held on February 28 at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump consulted about 25 Republican donors —including Robert Kraft— on their preferences between Rubio and Vance for 2028. The response was overwhelming: one attendee described it as “almost unanimous for Marco,” while another estimated it to be “80-20 Marco.” A former Trump administration official encapsulated the mood among the major donors with a straightforward phrase: “The Mar-a-Lago donor crew are not JD people”.
However, there is a significant gap between the enthusiasm of donors and the support from the Republican base. A survey by NBC News showed that 77% of Republican voters have a positive view of Vance, compared to 66% for Rubio. Vance maintains a stronger connection with the grassroots electorate, while Rubio gains momentum as a potential successor among the establishment and major party donors.
Trump has publicly praised both without formally endorsing either, and on some occasions suggested that a joint Vance-Rubio ticket would be “unstoppable” in 2028. Rubio, a Cuban-American and son of immigrants, born in Miami and 54 years old, has avoided confirming any candidacy and has reiterated that his priority is to continue as Secretary of State.
"One never knows what will happen in politics," Rubio said when asked about his presidential ambitions, a response that his supporters interpret as a deliberately slightly open door towards 2028.
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