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The information disseminated in recent days by the American newspaper regarding an alleged plan by the Donald Trump administration to promote economic changes in Cuba has sparked a wave of reactions among Cubans both on and off the island.
The report describes a strategy that would combine political pressure with limited economic openings toward the Cuban private sector, a formula that some analysts have dubbed “”, in reference to the reform process that partially transformed the Soviet economy in the 1980s.
One of the most controversial points of the report is the assertion that a potential agreement could include a negotiated exit for the ruler Miguel Díaz-Canel, while the Castro family would remain on the island, maintaining influence in the system.
This possibility has sparked strong criticism among exile groups, who fear that such an arrangement would involve cosmetic changes at the top of the government without altering the core of the political and economic power built by Castroism over decades, as reported by Local 10.
Among the mentioned measures is the decision announced on February 25 to allow U.S. petroleum products to be sold directly to private businesses in Cuba, effectively circumventing the embargo in place since 1960.
According to the article, the U.S. administration is exploring ways to increase economic interaction with the island in sectors such as energy, ports, or tourism.
However, the report —based on anonymous sources— has raised doubts among sectors of the Cuban exile community and political analysts who consider it premature to assume such an agreement.
Several commentators have pointed out that any broad economic negotiations with the Cuban regime would face significant legal obstacles in the United States.
The Helms-Burton Act, passed by Congress in 1996, codified the embargo against Cuba and set clear conditions for any normalization, including the release of political prisoners, progress toward a democratic transition, and the dismantling of the regime's repressive apparatus.
From that perspective, some critics argue that an agreement that includes significant economic flexibilizations without prior political changes would be difficult to implement within the existing legal framework.
Others have directly questioned the credibility of the report, pointing out that it relies on anonymous sources and the opinions of experts or think tanks, which —according to its critics— does not necessarily equate to an official policy already defined by the White House.
In social media, commentators and analysts associated with the Cuban exile community have warned that premature interpretations or media speculation could create confusion regarding Washington's actual policy towards Havana.
At the same time, some Cuban-American political leaders have insisted that any engagement with the regime should lead to a process of political transition on the island.
In the midst of this debate, the historic exile activist Ramón Saúl Sánchez, leader of the Movimiento Democracia, expressed on Monday his concern about the possibility of negotiations or agreements that, in his view, could end up benefiting the Cuban regime at a time of extreme economic weakness.
During an intervention broadcast on Facebook, Sánchez warned that stabilizing the system economically without real political changes could become "a lifeline" for a dictatorship that, he said, is "at the end of its rope."
The activist questioned the idea that economic openness—including potential foreign investments in natural resources such as nickel or cobalt—could be presented as a pathway to freedom for the Cuban people.
A similar warning was expressed by the Cuban opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer, head of the Unión Patriótica de Cuba (UNPACU), who reacted to reports indicating that an economic agreement that allows the Castro power structure to remain on the island could become a strategic mistake.
Ferrer stated that any arrangement that leaves the structure of the regime intact—even if it involves changes in visible figures of the government—would run the risk of prolonging the survival of the system without producing a real democratic transition.
The reactions reflect the cautious atmosphere with which large sectors of the exile community monitor any signs of change in U.S. policy towards Cuba, especially at a time when the island is experiencing a profound economic crisis marked by prolonged blackouts, fuel shortages, and a general deterioration of living conditions.
In that context, the debate surrounding the alleged plans of the Trump administration has once again raised a central question: whether limited economic reforms can lead to a political transformation in Cuba or if, on the contrary, they risk prolonging the survival of the current totalitarian regime.
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