Cuban opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer asserted this Friday that the regime in Havana could face its downfall within weeks, even pointing to a specific date, based—he explained—on his personal interpretation of recent statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump.
During a live stream on Facebook, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Cuba (UNPACU) claimed to have "discovered" how many days it would be until the U.S. government takes action against the power in the island.
"I have discovered how many days are left until Donald Trump takes action against the Castros and Díaz-Canel: two months and three days", said Ferrer to his supporters.
The opposition leader noted that he reached this conclusion after hearing a statement from Trump in which he dismissed the possibility of military intervention in Cuba. According to his reasoning, a similar assertion preceded—he claims—subsequent events in Venezuela.
Earlier today, Trump told a journalist that he does not plan to intervene militarily in Cuba. Notably, on October 31 or November 1 of last year, Trump said something similar about Venezuela, stating that he did not intend to intervene militarily there, and two months and three days later, Maduro was out of power.
Ferrer extended that parallel to the Cuban situation and concluded that the fall of the regime would be inevitable within a similar timeframe.
“If Trump said today that he did not intend to intervene in Cuba, knowing the danger and wickedness of those miserable criminals, those infamous murderers, it is obvious that in two months and three days, the Castros are done for, and so is Canel,” he stated.
In his comment, he even joked about the possibility that a potential military attack might include American Tomahawk missiles, although he said it in an ironic tone.
"The Tomahawks are going to come down on them soon, unless they leave beforehand, but let's not tell them... let's keep this a secret and see if any Tomahawk fails," he concluded.
Ferrer did not specify a specific date during the broadcast. However, if we take March 13 as a reference—the day Trump publicly ruled out military action against Cuba—the two months and three days mentioned by the opposition figure would place that moment on May 16.
Trump's statement on Cuba
Ferrer’s remarks came after President Donald Trump dismissed the possibility of U.S. military intervention on the island.
During a phone interview with the U.S. media outlet Washington Examiner, the president was asked whether a military operation in Cuba could trigger new conflicts with drug cartels and other hostile actors in Latin America.
The response was short and definitive: "That is not going to happen."
The newspaper had raised this hypothesis based on previous statements from Trump himself, who had mentioned that Cuba could be next on his list once operations in Iran concluded. However, this time the president distanced himself from the idea of a direct military intervention and did not provide any additional details about what Washington's strategy towards Havana would be.
A context marked by negotiations and tensions
Ferrer's statements come at a time of significant political uncertainty regarding the relations between the United States and Cuba.
In recent days, Miguel Díaz-Canel himself publicly confirmed the existence of high-level conversations with Washington, driven—according to him—by Raúl Castro. This official acknowledgment marked a significant shift from the previous denials of the Cuban government.
The opposition member reacted strongly to that admission and accused the regime of having lied for weeks about the existence of contacts with the United States.
"Some pathological liars," Ferrer stated in another message after listening to the remarks of the Cuban leader.
According to the opposition leader, the public admission shows that the government has long been aware of these negotiations but chose to conceal them.
"I am listening to dictator Díaz-Canel. What planet does this individual live on?" he expressed at that moment.
Pressure for a democratic transition
Ferrer, who was released by the regime on October 13, 2025, and sent into exile in Miami along with his wife Nelva Ortega and their three children at the direct request of the U.S. government, has since maintained a clear public stance regarding the talks between Washington and Havana.
Although he supports international pressure against the Cuban government, he has repeatedly warned against any agreement that is limited to economic reforms without profound political changes.
In a message directed specifically at Trump, the opponent asserted that any negotiation should lead to the end of the current political system.
"We do not want negotiations that only lead to economic opening; we want the end of tyranny and an immediate transition to democracy," he wrote recently.
His position aligns with the concerns expressed by various sectors of the Cuban exile community, who fear that the talks between both governments may end up replicating a scenario similar to the diplomatic thaw of 2014-2016, when sanctions were relaxed without any political transformations taking place on the island.
As negotiations continue and the Cuban economic crisis deepens, Ferrer insists that the regime is facing a critical moment.
For the opposition, the international pressure and the internal deterioration of the country suggest an impending outcome, although their prediction of a specific date for the collapse of the system is more a personal interpretation of events than confirmed signals of imminent action.
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