The informal currency market in Cuba wakes up this Tuesday with an important change: the dollar sets a new sales record.
Additionally, the price of the euro has decreased in relation to the rise it experienced the previous day.
In the last few hours, the US dollar rose to 515 CUP, which represents two pesos more than the value it reached on Sunday.
The increase in the value of the US dollar occurs in a context marked by the growing social tension on the island.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The euro, for its part, has decreased in the last hours from 579 to 576 CUP, marking a drop of three pesos, according to the daily report from elTOQUE, which documents the fluctuations of currencies.
In the case of the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), it remains stable today, valued at 400 CUP.
The dollar consolidates the upward trend
The most relevant piece of information is not so much today's specific rise in the dollar, but rather the change in trend. After a period of apparent calm that lasted more than 10 days, trading at 510 CUP—always relative in such a volatile market—the dollar is beginning to show upward pressure.
This behavior is often interpreted as an indicator of increased demand for foreign currency or negative expectations regarding the future availability of foreign exchange.
Among the most likely causes is a rise in economic uncertainty.
In Cuba, where access to foreign currencies is crucial for consumption, migration, or saving protection, any sign of instability—whether internal or external—tends to result in increased demand for dollars.
This is compounded by the continued deterioration of the national economy, persistent shortages, and the lack of clear signs of recovery.
In this context, it is not unlikely that Donald Trump's recent speech about Cuba is influencing, at least on the psychological level of the market.
His statements: “I believe I will have the honor of taking Cuba” or “if I liberate it, I take it. I think I can do whatever I want with it” — introduce an element of geopolitical uncertainty that may directly impact the expectations of informal economic actors within the Island.
Historically, the Cuban foreign exchange market has reacted not only to tangible economic factors but also to perceptions and rumors.
A potential hardening of U.S. policy, new sanctions, or even scenarios of increased bilateral tension could instill fear of worsening domestic conditions, encouraging the purchase of dollars as a safe haven.
Additionally, Trump’s own words describing Cuba as a “failed nation” and his insistence that “they are talking to us” may fuel the idea of imminent changes—albeit undefined—which increases uncertainty and, in turn, puts pressure on the U.S. dollar.
In contrast, the decline of the euro may be attributed to relatively lower demand compared to the dollar, which remains the benchmark currency in the Cuban informal market.
The stability of the MLC, for its part, suggests that, at least for now, there are no significant variations in the internal circuit of foreign currency stores.
In any case, the rise of the dollar indicates that the market is entering a phase of readjustment again.
It remains to be seen whether this increase will consolidate in the coming days or if it is just a temporary movement driven by situational factors, including the rising political noise coming from Washington.
Exchange rate today 03/17/2026 - 8:09 a.m. in Cuba:
The exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 515 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 575 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 400 CUP.
The rates published by elTOQUE have become one of the main indicators for measuring the real value of the Cuban peso against foreign currencies, in a context where the official exchange rate remains very far from the market reality.
Foreign currencies are primarily used for emigrating, importing goods, protecting savings against inflation, or making purchases in the growing private sector, which keeps pressure high on the informal market.
In a scenario of sustained inflation, low state wages, and increasing partial dollarization of the economy, the behavior of the informal foreign exchange market continues to have a direct impact on internal prices and the purchasing power of Cubans.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of March 17:
1 USD = 515 CUP.
2 USD = 1,030 CUP.
5 USD = 2,575 CUP.
10 USD = 5,150 CUP.
20 USD = 10,300 CUP.
50 USD = 25,750 CUP.
100 USD = 51,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 575 CUP.
5 EUR = 2.875 CUP.
10 EUR = 5,750 CUP.
20 EUR = 11,500 CUP.
50 EUR = 28,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 57,500 CUP.
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