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Ongoing conversations between the United States and the Cuban regime may not merely be an attempt at diplomatic outreach, but part of a broader strategy that could pave the way for more decisive actions if they fail, according to a recent report in the magazine The Atlantic.
The media reports that U.S. officials are considering a scenario in which dialogue with Havana serves as a precursor to a change in approach, similar to what happened in Venezuela, where negotiations did not lead to sustainable agreements and ultimately preceded a more direct intervention.
Although both parties have publicly confirmed contact, the context indicates that these conversations are taking place under significant political and economic pressure.
The administration of President Donald Trump would be leveraging the internal crisis on the island—characterized by blackouts, food shortages, and the deterioration of basic services—as a means to press for structural concessions.
The Atlantic warns that, in recent scenarios such as those in Iran and Venezuela, dialogue processes did not yield concrete results, leading to a shift towards more aggressive actions.
In this regard, Cuba could follow a similar trajectory if agreements are not reached on key issues such as political changes, economic openness, and compensation for confiscated properties.
Some analysts believe that dialogue can also serve a tactical purpose: allowing Washington to demonstrate that it has exhausted diplomatic avenues before justifying more severe measures on the international stage.
Recent signals from Havana reinforce the tension
The recent movements of the Cuban regime suggest a contradictory scenario: a willingness to engage in dialogue on certain issues, but total resistance on others deemed essential.
On one hand, the government has hinted at some flexibility. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, recently acknowledged that Havana would be willing to consider compensations for confiscated properties following the 1959 Revolution as part of a potential agreement with Washington.
However, this openness contrasts with very clear red lines. The official himself publicly admitted that political prisoners are not part of the negotiations with the United States, confirming that the regime is not willing to compromise on internal control issues.
In the same vein, Cuban authorities have reiterated that the political system “is not negotiable”, ruling out any structural reform as part of the bilateral dialogue.
At the same time, the regime has raised the tone in the military arena. In recent statements, Fernández de Cossío asserted that the Cuban army is preparing for the possibility of a military action from the United States, amid a backdrop of escalating tension.
A dialogue with limits and a high risk of breakdown
This set of signals reinforces the hypothesis put forth by The Atlantic: the negotiations may be destined to hit insurmountable limits.
While Washington seeks profound changes, Havana is trying to buy time without relinquishing political control or addressing sensitive issues such as internal repression. This gap increases the likelihood that the process will fail.
In that scenario, the shift from negotiation to a more aggressive strategy would cease to be a remote possibility and become a concrete option, at a particularly delicate moment for Cuba.
Uncertainty dominates the landscape. However, the accumulated signals —both from Washington and Havana— suggest that the outcome could extend beyond diplomacy.
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