The Guantanamo Naval Base is once again at the center of the geopolitical landscape amid rising tensions between Washington and Havana.
The threats from President Donald Trump and the tightening of economic pressure against the island have reignited the debate about the potential strategic use of this enclave, one of the most controversial aspects of U.S. foreign policy in the Caribbean.
Although a direct military intervention does not seem to be an immediate scenario, analysts agree that the base could play a significant role if the crisis escalates or if the current channels of pressure fail.
A military enclave with strategic significance
The agency EFE places Guantánamo as a key piece in any escalation scenario, although it insists that the military route remains unlikely for now.
The foreign policy expert, Daniel DePetris, warns that "with Trump, it would be unwise to dismiss any option," although he clarifies that the likelihood of a military operation against Cuba "is scarce at the moment."
The analysis indicates that Washington's current strategy remains focused on economic coercion, with measures that have worsened the internal crisis on the island.
However, DePetris himself leaves the door open to a change in the scenario if the negotiation channels break down: “the military option could become more plausible, just as it happened with Venezuela.”
In that context, Guantánamo takes on a concrete operational value.
The expert explained to the news agency that the base would serve as “a central node in any U.S. military scenario” and as a “critical logistical hub for the U.S. Navy,” due to its strategic location in the Caribbean and its proximity to Cuban territory.
However, he also emphasized the limitations of the enclave.
“The base itself is old, it is in a state of disrepair and is sadly notorious for the poor condition of its infrastructure,” DePetris noted to EFE, referring to issues acknowledged even by the U.S. Southern Command.
Nonetheless, the analyst believes that the enclave would remain relevant in a tense scenario. “It will inevitably be necessary to strengthen security at the Guantanamo perimeter, if only as a precautionary measure,” he stated.
Beyond its military value, EFE also presents a critical interpretation of the political backdrop of the threats.
DePetris argues that the perception of Cuba as a threat to the United States has become outdated.
“Trump's obsession with Cuba is more driven by his desire to dominate the region, reinforce American control over it, and enhance his own legacy, than by the need to eliminate a real threat”, he stated.
The expert further warns of the risks of a hypothetical intervention: a power vacuum on the island, an increase in migratory flows to Florida, and a diplomatic isolation of Washington in Latin America, where it would find little support for direct action.
In parallel, the political context adds tension.
While Secretary of State Marco Rubio has avoided specifying timelines regarding a supposed "takeover" of Cuba announced by Trump, the Deputy Foreign Minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, recently stated from Havana that the country is preparing for a possible military aggression.
The agency also highlights the historical dimension of the site.
Historian Andrés Pertierra explains that the basis is “an artifact of the imposition of the Platt Amendment on Cuba as a condition for the end of the occupation of the island,” which makes it a persistent symbol of the unequal relationship between the two countries.
This origin partly explains its current symbolic significance. Although the Platt Amendment was repealed in 1934, subsequent agreements have maintained U.S. control over the territory, the return of which is still demanded by Cuba.
For Pertierra, Guantánamo encapsulates decades of tensions, contradictions, and intersecting meanings.
“Guantánamo represents everything, from the good to the bad and even the curious, depending on whom you ask,” he concluded.
From uncomfortable symbol to key piece in a crisis scenario
The other analysis, The Guardian agrees that Guantánamo has ceased to be merely a symbol of controversy and has once again become a strategic asset in the current context.
The British media emphasizes that the base, long associated with the war on terrorism, is "no longer just a symbol of a counter-terrorism policy questioned by human rights organizations, but a key piece on a larger board."
In this context, Cuba is experiencing one of the most delicate moments in its recent history, with an economic and social crisis that has pushed the population to the brink.
In that context, Guantánamo takes on a new dimension.
According to The Guardian, after having been “a political problem for Washington,” the base is now “once again, a strategic asset that could play an important role in any scenario of instability in the region or even U.S. interference against the Government of the island.”
The medium also describes the uniqueness of the enclave: a space separated from the rest of Cuba by a fence, with an internal life that resembles a small American town, where military facilities, civil services, and a maximum-security prison that has never been closed coexist.
Beyond its military function, The Guardian highlights the potential role of Guantanamo in other scenarios, such as immigration control.
In times of crisis, the base has been used to accommodate migrants intercepted at sea, a function that could be reactivated if the situation on the island worsens.
The researcher Theodore Piccone from the Brookings Institution explained to the media that Washington is acting cautiously regarding that risk.
“The United States does not want to have a migration emergency on its hands”, he stated, which could hinder more aggressive decisions.
Still, he acknowledges that the pressure on the Cuban government has steadily intensified.
“The pressure on the regime has reached a new level of intensity… and it is cumulative. It builds up over time,” he stated to The Guardian.
Piccone also introduces a relevant nuance: the uniqueness of the Cuban case.
Unlike other crisis scenarios, the island combines strong state control with deep economic deterioration, which reduces the likelihood of an immediate collapse, but does not eliminate long-term risks.
In this balance, Guantánamo emerges as a versatile tool: a military base, a logistical point, a center for migration containment, and a symbol of power in a region where actors like China and Russia also have influence.
An enclave between history, pressure, and uncertainty
Both EFE and The Guardian agree on one essential point: the Guantánamo Naval Base is regaining significance at a time of great uncertainty.
It is not, for now, the epicenter of an imminent military action, but rather a key element within a broader strategy of pressure on Cuba, which combines economic sanctions, political tensions, and implicit warnings.
In this context, the enclave encapsulates like few others the complexity of the relationship between the two countries: a blend of history, power, conflict, and symbolism that, far from dissipating, is regaining strength at a particularly delicate moment.
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