John Suárez, executive director of the Center for a Free Cuba, explained in an interview with CiberCuba that official documents from the Trump Administration explicitly outline a plan similar to the one executed against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela if negotiations with the Cuban regime do not yield results. Suárez emphasized that this is not an interpretation, but rather what those texts literally state.
The analyst cited three key documents: the National Security Strategy from December 2025, which states that Washington will not tolerate hostile regimes in the Western Hemisphere; Executive Order 14380, signed on January 29, 2026, which declared a national emergency due to the "unusual and malign" threat posed by Cuba; and a strategic document from the Department of Defense that explicitly identifies the situation with Maduro as a model to be applied to intransigent regimes.
"If those conversations do not yield fruitful results, that document highlights what happened with Maduro as a policy to be applied to intransigent regimes in the hemisphere. That is what those three documents state," Suárez affirmed.
The analyst also clarified that this model is not limited to Cuba: "The document states that from Canada to the south of America, this will be the policy they have in mind. It's not just for Cuba; it's for anyone."
Suárez made these statements in the context of negotiations that seem to have "stalled" and reached a standstill. Miguel Díaz-Canel publicly confirmed on March 13 that there are discussions with the Trump Administration, after having formally denied them until the 10th of that month. Díaz-Canel himself acknowledged on March 25 that it is Raúl Castro who is leading the negotiation process on the Cuban side, with his grandson Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," serving as a key interlocutor with Marco Rubio's team.
Suárez interpreted the public appearance of Raúl's grandson alongside Díaz-Canel as a deliberate signal of who truly holds the power. "I believe that Miguel Díaz-Canel is the new Osvaldo Dorticós. He neither influences nor decides anything. He's there because Raúl Castro appointed him," he pointed out. Regarding that staging, he added: "At the moment they are worried that something could happen, they want to show who is really in charge. It's crude, but it's effective."
The director of the Center for a Free Cuba established a fundamental distinction between the conversations between Washington and Havana— which are between two governments and can result in an agreement regarding U.S. national interests— and a true democratic transition, which would require a dialogue between the regime and the Cuban people.
"The conversations are between the Trump Administration and the Cuban dictatorship. The most important and fundamental conversation has not taken place, which is the conversation between the dictatorship and the Cuban people about how that people can regain their sovereignty," he warned.
Regarding the Helms-Burton Act, which turns 30 in 2026, Suárez noted that the regime has a clear legal path to move forward: releasing all political prisoners —Prisoners Defenders records 1,214, a record number—, legalizing dissent and political parties, and committing to free multiparty elections. He deemed it very unlikely that the current Congress would pass a law to repeal that legislation.
"The trajectory of the regime over the last 67 years has been fraught with tactics to buy time to remain in power; that has always been their strategy," concluded Suárez, leaving the question open as to whether this time the outcome will be different.
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