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The informal currency market in Cuba is once again asserting its logic. On April 18, the euro skyrocketed to 598 Cuban pesos (CUP), its highest recorded level, while the official rate from the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) barely reaches 576.52 CUP.
The difference, of more than 20 pesos, not only persists: it is widening at a time of market acceleration.
The dollar reinforces this same dynamic. It remains at 525 CUP in the informal circuit, compared to the 488 CUP set by the BCC. The gap is around 37 pesos, a margin that remains sufficiently wide to keep the parallel market as the dominant reference.
The pattern is already recognizable. The informal market sets the pace, breaking ceilings and redefining levels within a matter of hours or days. The Central Bank, on the other hand, responds with gradual adjustments.
This Saturday, the official euro rose only 1.95 CUP, a minimal change compared to the recent fluctuations in the market, where the currency has climbed between five and eight pesos on consecutive days.
The recent behavior of the euro clearly illustrates this dynamic. For several days, it remained stable around 590 CUP, in what seemed to be a pause. However, that calm was quickly shattered by a surge that brought it close to 600 CUP.
The BCC's reaction has not kept pace with that movement, which highlights its reactive nature.
This gap is not just technical, but structural. The design of the exchange system limits the impact of the official rate. The scarcity of foreign currency in the state circuit, access restrictions, and lack of liquidity mean that the informal market is the space where the real price of money is determined.
The economic context worsens the situation. Sustained inflation, the issuance of new high-denomination bills, and the energy crisis following the decline in Venezuelan oil supply have increased pressure on the Cuban peso. Furthermore, the international strengthening of the euro against the dollar is also driving up its exchange rate within the island.
The result is an increasingly disconnected dual system. On one hand, an official rate that attempts to keep pace with the devaluation without fully acknowledging it; on the other hand, an informal market that serves as a true thermometer of the economy.
The euro nearing 600 CUP is not just a record. It is the confirmation that, in Cuba, the Central Bank adjusts… but it is the informal market that holds the power.
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