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The Electric Union (UNE) forecasted this Tuesday a deficit of 1,012 MW for peak nighttime hours, the lowest figure in about five months and a sign of relative relief for millions of Cubans who have been enduring daily blackouts for over a year.
The last comparable forecast was on November 4, 2025, when the UNE estimated a deficit of 1,100 MW during peak hours. Since then, the crisis has steadily worsened: in January 2026, the deficit was around 1,800 MW, on March 26 it reached 1,955 MW, and on April 1 a maximum impact of 1,945 MW was recorded.
This Monday, the predicted deficit was 1,848 MW with an availability of only 1,202 MW compared to a demand of 3,050 MW, making the improvement observed this Tuesday quite notable in relative terms.
According to the information note published this Tuesday by the UNE, at 06:00 hours the availability of the National Electroenergetic System was 1,970 MW compared to a demand of 2,390 MW, with 480 MW affected. By noon, an impact of 850 MW was estimated.
For the nighttime peak, the UNE anticipates a capacity of 2,188 MW against a maximum demand of 3,200 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,012 MW and an estimated impact of 1,042 MW. The entity also reported that for that time, the entry of unit 3 of the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Thermoelectric Power Plant with 158 MW—currently in the startup process—and unit 8 of the Mariel Thermoelectric Power Plant with an additional 60 MW is expected.
Among the offline units are breakdowns at the plants Máximo Gómez, Diez de Octubre, Carlos Manuel de Céspedes, Antonio Maceo, and Felton, with an additional 370 MW of thermal limitations. Three more units are currently under maintenance at the plants Mariel, Renté, and Nuevitas.
The improvement coincides with the start of the distribution of the products obtained from the processing of the 100,000 tons of crude oil donated by Russia. The tanker Anatoly Kolodkin docked at the port of Matanzas on March 31 with approximately 730,000 barrels, and the Camilo Cienfuegos Refinery began on April 19 the distribution of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and liquefied gas to all provinces using trucks, trains, and ships.
Irenaldo Pérez Cardoso, deputy director of the Cuba-Petroleum Union (CUPET), acknowledged that the Russian supply barely meets about one third of the national demand over a month, in a context marked by secondary sanctions that led Mexico to suspend its shipments and by the structural scarcity that the government itself has recognized, admitting that "Cuba has absolutely no fuel for hardly anything".
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