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The Cuban-American community is experiencing a moment of profound emotional ambivalence in light of the escalating tensions between Washington and Havana, with ongoing negotiations and options on the table ranging from economic agreements to a change of regime or a military operation, according to .
The context fueling this tension is an unprecedented escalation. Since January, the oil blockade imposed by the Trump administration has reduced Cuba's energy imports by between 80% and 90%, causing blackouts of 20 to 30 hours daily in more than 55% of the territory.
On May 1, Trump signed a new executive order expanding sanctions against Cuba, targeting individuals and entities complicit in "government corruption or serious human rights violations."
Guillermo Grenier, Cuban-American sociologist from Florida International University and director of the FIU Cuba Poll since 1991, summarizes the mood of the diaspora with a phrase that captures everything: "At this moment, the community is wildly optimistic and wildly fearful at the same time."
Grenier, born in Havana and residing in the United States since the 1960s, acknowledged that his initial enthusiasm waned in the face of uncertainty about what would come next.
"When I first heard that something was going to happen, my spirits lifted because I know that Cubans really need something," he said.
"But when you think about it and ask yourself what will happen next, it becomes overwhelming. There is no hero here and no clear path."
His main concern is political violence. He warned that if the United States takes economic control of the island, "in a few decades we will have another Cuban Revolution."
The negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba confirmed in April have sparked mixed reactions. Andrew Otazo, a 39-year-old Cuban-American and native of Miami, does not hide his pessimism: "I have no hope for the Cuban people. Cuba is a giant wound that cries in the body of Cuban-Americans. It is a tragedy."
Austin Ibarra, 26, feels that the moment "seems like some kind of turning point," but he doesn't know in which direction. He warned that freedom cannot be genuine if its conditions are imposed from the outside. "Cuba cannot be free if the conditions of its freedom are imposed on it by the force of the United States," he stated.
The Cuban regime rejected in April the ultimatum from the U.S. to release high-profile political prisoners such as Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and Maykel Osorbo, further complicating any agreement that would satisfy all sectors of the diaspora.
Nikky Gonzalez, a 31-year-old Cuban American residing in Washington D.C., is more optimistic, though cautiously so. She proposes a territorial agreement similar to the one the United States has with Puerto Rico.
"No queremos que it be like what is happening in Venezuela or like what has happened in the Middle East, where we enter, overthrow the government, and leave everyone to their fate," he said. "Communism is bad. We know that Miguel Díaz-Canel and all that is bad. But who knows if there is something worse?"
A survey by the Miami Herald in April revealed that 79% of Cubans and Cuban Americans in South Florida support U.S. military intervention in Cuba, although younger voices in the community express more nuanced positions.
The exile also signed the Liberation Agreement in Miami, a document that demands free elections and a democratic transition in three phases.
The U.S. permit for trading Russian oil in transit to Cuba expires on May 16, a date that analysts point to as an uncertain scenario for change and could mark the next breaking point in a crisis that has been decades in the making.
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