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The average price of regular gasoline in the United States reached $4.48 per gallon this Tuesday, after increasing by 31 cents in just one week, representing a 50% rise since the onset of the war with Iran, according to data from the AAA organization.
The main reason for the increase in prices is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime passage in the Persian Gulf through which between 20% and 25% of the world's oil typically transits, a disruption that the International Energy Agency described as the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets.
The conflict began on February 28, 2026, with "Operation Epic Fury," a joint attack by the U.S. and Israel that destroyed 90% of Iran's missile arsenal. Iran responded by closing the Strait on March 4, collapsing naval traffic by 97% and leaving nearly 2,000 vessels stranded.
Crude oil reached $112 per barrel in early April, compared to the $67-$70 it cost before the conflict, and the price of gasoline has been rising steadily since the war began.
In mid-April, an initial ceasefire mediated by Pakistan generated some optimism, and prices fell for nearly two consecutive weeks.
«After the announcement of the initial ceasefire, there was optimism that it could be the beginning of the end of the conflict. Crude oil prices fell accordingly, spot gasoline prices followed suit, and retailers also reduced their prices,» explained Rob Smith, global retail fuel director of S&P Global Energy.
However, the war continued and prices resumed their upward trend. Since the ceasefire on April 8, Iran has fired upon commercial ships on nine occasions and has captured two container ships.
An additional factor that drove prices even higher was the Trump administration's decision in April to blockade Iranian ports in order to cut Iran's oil exports.
"Iran had been moving an unusually high amount of oil to global markets, which was helping to moderate prices. The Trump administration decided to punish Iran by blocking its exports, which of course puts pressure on Iran, but it also affects global oil prices and drives them upwards. That was probably a significant factor," noted Jim Krane, an energy researcher at the Baker Institute of Rice University.
Prices vary considerably by state: California leads with $6.10 per gallon, followed by Washington at $5.67 and Oregon at $5.30, while Texas ($3.92) and Georgia ($3.85) record the lowest values.
Crude oil accounts for 51% of the cost of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration, which explains the close correlation between the two prices. Federal and state taxes contribute 17%, refining accounts for 14%, and distribution and marketing make up the remaining 17%.
On May 3, Trump announced the "Freedom Project" to escort stranded ships in the Strait, but paused the operation this Wednesday, creating new uncertainty in the markets.
Analysts warn that gasoline prices will continue to rise as long as the Strait remains blocked, and that even a lasting peace would not be enough for an immediate recovery.
"Even if there were a true and lasting resolution to the conflict, and both sides committed to keeping Ormuz open, it would still take months to return to what it was before the war, if not longer. There will continue to be a risk premium associated with transiting that region. It will be a long time before anyone can be convinced otherwise," Smith warned.
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