The Venezuelan journalist and researcher Andrés Cañizález believes it is likely that Nicolás Maduro regrets rejecting the negotiated exit offers made by the Trump administration, and draws a direct parallel between the pressure that Venezuela experienced and the one Cuba is facing today.
In an interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba, Cañizález pointed out that Maduro's fatal mistake was underestimating Trump's willingness to use military force. "Part of the problem Maduro faced is that he was convinced Trump would never push the button to send troops to Venezuela, meaning he believed Trump would only engage in rhetoric," the analyst stated.
This calculation error, according to Cañizález, cost Maduro at least two concrete opportunities to leave power under favorable conditions. "Trump called Maduro on two occasions, meaning Maduro had the chance to step down in a situation perhaps more akin to that of the Syrian dictator, securing a golden exile, for instance in Russia or elsewhere," he explained.
Instead of accepting, Maduro was captured on January 3, 2026 by U.S. special forces during Operation Absolute Resolution and transferred to New York to face federal drug trafficking charges. Days later, Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as president of Venezuela before the National Assembly, following an order from the Supreme Court of Justice.
The analyst recalls that Trump revealed in October 2025 that Maduro had offered "everything" —access to oil, gold, and the reversal of contracts with China, Iran, and Russia— to avoid military confrontation, but Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil was emphatic: "The president will not negotiate his departure."
Cañizález now outlines the same timeframe regarding Cuba. The United States' naval operations against Venezuela began in August 2025, but the pressure intensified in October with the air deployment. "The naval operations started in August; however, it was in October that the pressure was felt much more because the air deployment also began, which indicated that the United States was not going to conduct such a broad deployment only to withdraw without any victory or reward," he explained.
Since January 2026, Cuba has been under similar pressure for less than five months, and there are already concrete signs: armed drones and artificial intelligence in military exercises near the island, and the exercise FLEX2026 conducted from April 24 to 30 in Key West. "There is indeed a deployment of drones in Cuba, and I believe this photo is a warning," Cañizález cautioned.
Regarding the state of negotiations between Washington and Havana, the analyst acknowledges the uncertainty: "It's hard to know because we don't have enough information to gauge how advanced they are or at what points they stand."
However, Cañizález does not hesitate to point out the direction in which events are heading. "Following what happened in Venezuela in January, and what can be considered the failure of the United States in Iran, the Cuban issue becomes much more relevant for the Trump administration," he stated.
The analyst concludes with a reading that points directly to the Havana regime: "I see it as much more of a scenario that can be accelerated to finally reach a resolution to what the United States has been sketching for several months to achieve a change of regime in Cuba."
Filed under: