The Venezuelan journalist and researcher Andrés Cañizález warns that the greatest danger for Cuba is not the fall of the regime, but rather that this collapse leads to a mere reconfiguration of authoritarian power, repeating the Venezuelan model, rather than a genuine democratization.
In an interview granted to CiberCuba, journalist Tania Costa, Cañizález pointed out that following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and the assumption of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president of Venezuela, the Cuban issue has gained renewed importance for the Trump administration.
"Following the events in Venezuela in January, and what can be seen as the failure of the United States in Iran, the Cuban issue becomes much more relevant for the Trump administration. I see it as a scenario that can be accelerated to ultimately find a resolution to what the United States has been outlining for several months: achieving a regime change in Cuba," the expert stated.
The analyst drew a parallel between the military pressure exerted on Venezuela and that which Cuba faces today.
He recalled that naval operations against Venezuela began in August 2025, the pressure intensified in October with the air deployment, and the entire process took six months until January 2026.
In contrast, the pressure on Cuba has been ongoing for less than five months since January.
"In Cuba, there is indeed a deployment of drones, and I believe this photo serves as a wake-up call," said Cañizález.
This deployment has documented backing. The U.S. conducted the FLEX2026 military exercise in Key West from April 24 to April 30, 2026, integrating armed drones, artificial intelligence, and combat ships within the operational range of the island.
Regarding the state of negotiations between Washington and Havana, Cañizález acknowledged the limitations of his analysis: "It is difficult to know because we lack the necessary information to gauge how advanced they are or what specific points they are at."
The direct negotiations between Washington and Havana failed on April 24 after Cuba rejected an ultimatum to release political prisoners.
The central risk identified by Cañizález is that the White House settles for a superficial outcome. "The risk is to think in a simplistic way that the policy of the White House is to achieve a Delcy or a Cuban Delcy."
"That would be a great risk for Cuba, a significant problem for what we fundamentally aspire to happen in Cuba: a genuine democratization of Cuba after so many years of the Castro dictatorship," he warned.
The expert structurally distinguishes between the two regimes: Cuba is a totalitarian system with comprehensive control by the state, society, and private life, with no organized opposition, while Venezuela represents a hybrid authoritarianism that tolerates areas of conflict. This difference makes the "Delcy model" especially insufficient for the island.
In that context, Marco Rubio's visit to the Vatican —where he met with Pope Leo XIV— takes on diplomatic significance. Rubio presented a proposal during that meeting to expand humanitarian aid to Cuba channeled through the Catholic Church.
The Vatican already acted as a key mediator in the Obama-Castro rapprochement from 2014 to 2016, and Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla visited Rome in February 2026 to discuss with the Holy See about mediation in Cuba.
Cañizález does not rule out the possibility of the Cuban regime being displaced, but emphasizes that this does not guarantee anything. "I definitely see it as feasible that the current structure holding power in Cuba could be removed. The big question is whether that will lead to a transformation of power similar to what we are experiencing in Venezuela," he concluded, leaving open the question that matters most to those aspiring for a free and democratic Cuba.
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