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The capture of Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces on January 3, 2026, marked a turning point in relations between Cuba and Venezuela, two countries that shifted from being close political and economic allies to maintaining a distance filled with silence and uncertainties, according to experts consulted by the EFE agency.
"It is difficult to know the exact point at which the bilateral relationship stands," acknowledges Pável Alemán, researcher and professor at the University of Havana and one of Cuba's leading specialists in the field.
In his opinion, this high-level relationship is now at risk of a gradual cooling due to the changes being introduced by the interim president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez.
Alemán notes that "the new Venezuelan government is gradually nullifying a number of social missions that had been approved long before," in addition to complying with Washington's request to cease oil exports to Cuba.
Cuba stopped receiving Venezuelan crude oil since January 9, 2026, exacerbating an already severe energy crisis on the island, which relied on Venezuela as its main supplier.
"This has a negative impact on Cuban society and, logically, on bilateral relations," the researcher argues.
For his part, the professor from the University of Puerto Rico, Efraín Vázquez Vera, is even more categorical: "The relations between Venezuela and Cuba are completely paralyzed."
This expert in international relations believes that Venezuela is not currently a factor in Cuban politics and that Maduro's capture serves as a warning for Havana: "a threat or a latent possibility of what could happen in Cuba."
In the last four months, cross mentions and expressions of support have been minimal, whereas they were very common before, and personal contacts have significantly decreased.
The most painful element for the Cuban regime was the death of 32 military members of the FAR and MININT who were part of Maduro's personal security detail during the operation.
"It was the first time in decades that Cubans were involved in a conflict on the soil of another country," emphasizes Alemán.
Vázquez Vera believes he perceives "a bit of resentment from the Cubans" because some on the island think that the operation had Venezuelan internal support, thus sacrificing those military personnel. Officially, the Cuban regime has not made any criticisms regarding this matter.
Alemán points out that Maduro had personal sympathies for Cuba—he studied at a center linked to the Communist Party in Havana between 1986 and 1987—but warns that the Venezuelan government has always been composed of "a rather heterogeneous group, where there are people who have never sympathized with Cuba."
Between questions remains the bilateral political coordination that once had a continental vocation, with institutions such as the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) and the economic mechanism Petrocaribe, through which Venezuela transferred more than 63.8 billion dollars to Cuba between 2000 and 2025.
EFE contacted the Cuban Foreign Ministry and the Venezuelan embassy in Havana regarding the status of bilateral relations and received no response from either party.
Regarding the possibility of Washington replicating in Cuba an operation similar to that executed in Venezuela, Alemán is skeptical and warns that Cuban nationalism, with anti-imperialism as its hallmark, would act as a hindrance: “Here it will not be easy for them to find someone with whom to negotiate behind Cuban society's back and launch a government replacement project”.
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