The Cuban economy will accumulate a decline of 26% since 2020 if the projections of the CEPAL for 2026 are met, according to the analysis by economist Elías Amor, who warns that Cuba is already the worst-managed economy in all of Latin America and the Caribbean, even falling behind Haiti.
The report by the CEPAL published on April 27 projects a contraction of the Cuban GDP by 6.5% for 2026, the worst among the 27 countries analyzed in the region. Added to the decline of 3.8% recorded in 2025, Cuba and Haiti are dragging down Latin America's growth to its lowest figures.
"In the overall period of 25-26, the Cuban economy is projected to decline by 10.3%. Look, not even Haiti. Haiti is also facing challenges and will decline, but only by 4.1%, less than half of Cuba's decline," Amor pointed out.
The contrast with Venezuela is particularly revealing according to Amor. CEPAL projects a growth of +6.5% for that country in 2026, but warns that this recovery will not benefit the Cuban regime. "Once Venezuela starts to operate, those problems it has brought along will have disappeared, but they will not benefit Cuba."
This situation is exacerbated by the collapse of the oil supply. Cuba only has fuel until the end of April, as acknowledged by the government itself, and the economist is blunt about the regime's makeshift solutions: "Chinese solar panels will not solve the energy problem in Cuba. Investments are needed, plants and power stations need to be updated, and we must stop consuming Cuban oil which, despite their claims of its quality, is not good and may end up damaging the parts, machines, and facilities."
The accumulated decline since 2020 has already surpassed the duration of the Special Period. The current crisis is worse than during the Special Period in terms of time span: that contraction was more intense in a single year, but recovered in a few years; this one has lasted six consecutive years with no signs of reversal.
The Cuban GDP per capita stood at just 1,082.8 dollars in 2025, the lowest in the entire region, compared to a regional average of 10,212 dollars. Amor emphasizes that if inflation were added to these figures, "the result would still be more alarming."
The regime, in the meantime, chooses silence. The CEPAL certifies the seriousness of the Cuban economy with data that the government itself has avoided disseminating. Granma devoted only half a page to the report without mentioning Cuba's specific results. "I believe it's a serious irresponsibility," Amor stated.
In response to the question of how much time the regime has left, the economist does not shy away from answering. "At this moment, the regime must be experiencing a terrible concern for what is to come. They have survived year 25 in a pirate-like manner, but what lies ahead in year 26 is an absolutely devastating collapse," he said.
Díaz-Canel clings to power as Cuba sinks without the government demonstrating any ability to respond. Amor is straightforward: "They lack both the tools and the knowledge to tackle this economic crisis. Therefore, it is very likely that they will step aside."
"I believe that the best solution for the transition in Cuba is not violence; it is simply taking a stand on the issue at hand," concluded the economist, suggesting that the regime could give in before the economic collapse leads to a social explosion.
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