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The Wall Street Journal published an opinion article that debunks the Cuban regime's official narrative about the blackouts: columnist Mary Anastasia O'Grady, an expert in Latin America, argues that the electrical crisis is not due to the U.S. embargo, but rather to decades of communist inefficiency, outdated infrastructure, and reliance on subsidized Venezuelan oil.
According to the analysis, Cuba is experiencing a deep economic crisis marked by a scarcity of foreign currency, which limits the country's ability to import fuel and sustain its energy system.
Key sectors such as agriculture, industry, and tourism have experienced sustained deterioration, significantly reducing state revenues and exacerbating the structural collapse.
The columnist also notes that the Cuban electrical system has suffered decades of neglect and insufficient investment.
Quoted experts indicate that the energy grid requires between 8 billion and 10 billion dollars for modernization, an amount beyond the government's reach under current conditions.
Furthermore, there are no short-term solutions to reverse the blackouts affecting the population.
The article emphasizes that, despite the official narrative, Cuba has access to food, medicine, and other goods in the international market if it has cash, which undermines the argument that the embargo is the main cause of the crisis.
Instead, it points to poor internal management and the centralized economic model as determining factors.
It also warns that the regime combines propaganda and repression to sustain itself amid economic deterioration while trying to influence international public opinion to deflect responsibility.
In this context, the blackouts would not be an isolated phenomenon, but rather a direct consequence of a system unable to sustain its own infrastructure.
However, the regime has insisted that the embargo is the "root cause" of the collapse of the National Electric System.
The chancellor Bruno Rodríguez and the deputy minister Tatiana Amarán reiterated this thesis in October 2025, even stating that five days of embargo correspond to the cost of repairs for key power plants.
However, the data contradict that version.
Cuba imports most of its oil from Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia, not from the United States, which puts into perspective the official argument about the embargo as a cause of the fuel shortage.
The energy expert Jorge Piñón is categorical: "The design of the interconnectivity of the generation system of the thermoelectric plants is the only cause of the seven total blackouts that Cuba has experienced in the last 16 months."
Piñón also points out that the eight Cuban thermal power plants have accumulated almost 40 years of intensive operation without the necessary recapitalization, and that the national crude oil, with high levels of sulfur and vanadium, causes accelerated corrosion in the components, creating a vicious cycle of constant breakdowns.
The collapse of external supply exacerbated an already deteriorated situation. Cuba needs approximately 110,000 barrels of oil daily but only produces about 40,000, having to import the remaining two-thirds.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 interrupted between 25,000 and 30,000 barrels per day coming from Venezuela, which accounted for two-thirds of Cuban imports. Mexico also halted its sales out of fear of reprisals from Washington.
The generation deficit has exceeded 1,900 MW during peak hours, with blackouts lasting up to 20 and 24 hours daily affecting the 11 million residents of the island.
The Cuban government itself admitted in March 2026 that it still did not know for certain what caused the most recent total blackout.
The Deputy Minister Argelio Jesús Abad Vigoa acknowledged the collapse of distributed generation after three months without fuel supplies, an admission that contradicts the narrative of the embargo as a sufficient explanation.
The crisis has triggered an unprecedented wave of protests: over 1,200 demonstrations recorded since January 2026, according to data from the United States Department of State, reported Infobae.
On March 15, in Morón, Ciego de Ávila, protesters set fire to the headquarters of the Communist Party during demonstrations against blackouts.
The estimated deficit for new generating capacity amounts to at least 6.612 billion dollars, a figure that highlights the extent of the structural neglect of Cuba's energy infrastructure after 67 years of dictatorship.
As noted by El País in October 2024, "there will be no change in the electricity sector without a change in the economic model", a conclusion that points directly to the political system as the source of the crisis, rather than external sanctions.
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