Alejandra Franganillo, an associate researcher at the Cuba Study Group, who interned in the office of former Senator Marco Rubio, dismisses the idea that the pressure policy against the Cuban regime will weaken under the Trump administration, attributing it directly to the personal commitment of the current Secretary of State.
The question arose from recent statements by President Trump that seem to indicate a willingness to engage in dialogue with Havana. Franganillo, born in San Juan to a Cuban family and holding a master's degree in Latin American Studies from Georgetown University, responded emphatically in an interview with Tania Costa: "I believe that things are not going to cool down; I do believe that things are going to continue because I had several occasions to meet Marco Rubio, and I think he is an exceptional person. I truly believe that he genuinely cares about and is deeply interested in issues related to Cuba and Venezuela."
"I believe that is something personal for him, especially regarding the situation in Cuba. I really think it is personal. I do believe he will not abandon Cuba," he added.
Franganillo highlighted as a concrete example of Rubio's policy efficiency the decision to allow oil to be sent only to the Cuban private sector, excluding the State and military entities.
"After so many years in which the existence of the private sector was discredited, you have the Cuban-American Secretary of State saying: look, the only thing that can operate oil is the private sector," he stated.
That measure was implemented on February 25, 2026, when Washington announced that it would allow the resale of Venezuelan crude oil to the Cuban private sector through specific licenses, explicitly excluding military, intelligence, or state entities. According to data from Reuters, the Cuban private sector received nearly 30,000 barrels of fuel from the U.S. that year, primarily through the port of Mariel.
The researcher also advocated for dialogue as a necessary tool, countering those who call for military intervention: "I believe that many people may disagree, but I do think that dialogue is necessary; I do think that what Marco Rubio has done by sitting down to talk with high-ranking officials and continuing the conversations is essential because I believe that intervention can lead to less favorable outcomes."
For Franganillo, Rubio's strategy reflects a deep understanding of the Cuban reality. "I believe that Marco Rubio is being very strategic, knowing the Cuban reality, which is a country that is, as Trump said, destroyed, a country that is finished."
This analysis comes at a time of unprecedented escalation of sanctions against the Cuban regime. Since January 2026, the Trump administration has imposed more than 240 restrictive measures and has intercepted at least seven oil tankers. On May 7, Rubio announced direct sanctions against GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls between 40% and 70% of Cuba's formal economy, which he described as "the heart of Cuba's kleptocratic communist system."
Franganillo also emphasized that Cuba lacks the minimum conditions for an immediate transition: "It's not just about removing the government and that's it. We need to establish foundations, we need to create institutions, we need to build a civil society, because we have political prisoners and the opposition is outside."
"There is no organized opposition like in Venezuela ready for the task of a transition in Cuba. That does not exist. So in Cuba, we need to take it step by step," he concluded, supporting the gradual roadmap that, in his opinion, defines the strategy of the Secretary of State, who has already mentioned three stages: stabilization, reconstruction, and transition.
Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants who arrived in the U.S. in 1956, took office on January 21, 2025, becoming the first Hispanic to lead U.S. diplomacy, a familial connection that Franganillo invokes to explain why, in his view, Cuba will never be just a foreign policy issue for him.
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