The Cuban political analyst José Manuel González Rubines warned this Thursday that the protests reported in various parts of Cuba are "just the first chapter of what will be a very difficult summer," and that the country is heading towards months of social tension with no visible institutional solution.
In a Facebook reel lasting over five minutes, González Rubines —journalist, researcher, and co-director of the think tank Cuba x Cuba— analyzed the demonstrations that took place on May 13 and 14, which spread across multiple municipalities in Havana: Santos Suárez, Lawton, Luyanó, Marianao, Playa, Nuevo Vedado, Diez de Octubre, Guanabacoa, and San Miguel del Padrón.
To illustrate the seriousness of the moment, the analyst referred to a historical quote: “It’s no coincidence that Máximo Gómez said his best generals were June, July, and August. Well, we are in May. The generals haven’t even arrived yet, and this is how things have already begun.”
What concerns González Rubines the most is not the magnitude of the protests, but their nature. "The most troubling aspect of these protests in 2026 is that we are beginning to see episodes of violence that were largely absent during the events of July 11 and in subsequent mobilizations," he noted.
People are burning trash and accessible objects and throwing stones—behaviors that, according to the analyst, are not spontaneous but rather the accumulated response to years of institutionalized repression. "This violence is not without reason, but rather a response to the violence that the regime has systematically inflicted on the lives of Cubans," he clarified, citing immediate evidence from the videos of Interior Ministry agents beating protesters in Playa, including individuals not participating in violent acts.
The analyst, based in Spain, identified three factors that make the current spiral particularly dangerous: the absence of institutional mechanisms to channel discontent, the lack of political strategies capable of reversing the conditions that generate it, and the closure of the historical migration valve. "This time, none of those exits seem available," he warned. Nicaragua closed its borders to Cuban migrants without visas on February 8, 2026, eliminating one of the main exit routes, while Cuba lost over a million inhabitants between 2021 and 2025.
The immediate trigger for the protests is the historically record-breaking electricity crisis: on May 13, the Electric Union reported a deficit of 2,113 MW, and the following day, the nighttime forecast reached a deficit of 2,204 MW with only 976 MW available. The Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, acknowledged that the situation is "acute, critical, and extremely tense," with power outages lasting up to 22 hours a day in some circuits of Havana, and that Cuba did not receive a single fuel tanker between December 2025 and the end of March 2026.
Social unrest has been escalating since the beginning of the year. The Cuban Conflict Observatory reported 1,245 protests, complaints, and expressions of discontent in March 2026 —the highest monthly figure since the events of July 11, 2021— and 1,133 in April, a 29.5% increase compared to the same month in 2025. Additionally, there are reports that the regime has moved weapons to various locations across the country, including small towns, preparing to respond forcefully to new protests. The United States Embassy in Havana issued a security alert this Friday regarding power outages and demonstrations, amidst widespread internet outages during the protests.
González Rubines concluded his analysis with a warning that encapsulates the current situation in Cuba: "These are just the thunder of a storm that has not yet begun."
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