The Russian channel Rybar, one of the most active and followed military analysis spaces within the pro-Kremlin ecosystem on Telegram, recently published an article titled 'What if Geran drones were launched from Cuba?'.
The article, published on their social media at the end of January, was accompanied by a map showing possible U.S. targets within reach of Iranian Shahed-136 drones hypothetically deployed on the island.
The publication states that “the main question is not whether the United States will attack Cuba, but when and how it will do so” and outlines scenarios for Cuban military response using attack drones called “Geran,” a name used by Russia for the Iranian Shahed drones deployed in Ukraine.
According to the map released by Rybar, there are targets within the range of Cuba, such as Mar-a-Lago, the residence of Donald Trump in Florida; the White House; U.S. military bases; SpaceX facilities; technology data centers; Gulf of Mexico refineries; and the headquarters of Southern Command.
The article resurfaces on the social media of CSIS analyst Samuel Bendett, hours after Axios reported that the Cuban regime has reportedly acquired more than 300 military drones from Russia and Iran since 2023, according to classified intelligence cited by U.S. officials.
The report also stated that Cuban officials had allegedly discussed hypothetical scenarios for use against the naval base at Guantánamo, U.S. ships, and even Key West.
Although Washington clarified that it does not consider Cuba an imminent military threat, the issue has raised growing concerns about military cooperation between Havana, Moscow, and Tehran.
Bendett, one of the most well-known American analysts on drones and Russian military technology, described Rybar as “one of the most active pro-Kremlin channels” and recalled that the Russian outlet had previously promoted similar scenarios related to Venezuela.
In previous posts, Rybar suggested the delivery of Geran drones to the chavismo as a deterrent mechanism against the United States and even analyzed the use of Venezuelan FPV drones against a hypothetical U.S. military operation.
The pattern suggests that nationalist and military sectors in Russia have been promoting narratives about asymmetric warfare in Latin America for months using inexpensive drones manufactured in Iran or Russia.
Although there is no public evidence that Cuba currently possesses operational Shahed or Geran drones, the increasing interest of Russian military media in confrontation scenarios from the Caribbean coincides with recent U.S. intelligence alerts and the worsening of relations between Washington and Havana.
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