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An exclusive report from Axios published this Sunday ignited a significant wave of reactions on social media in the United States after journalist Marc Caputo revealed that Cuba has reportedly acquired over 300 military drones from Russia and Iran, and that regime officials have discussed plans to use them against the Guantanamo Naval Base, U.S. Navy vessels, and possibly Key West, Florida.
The report, based on classified intelligence cited by sources from the Trump administration, divided analysts, politicians, and influencers between those who see it as a real national security threat and those who label it as a pretext for military intervention.
The leftist streamer and political influencer Hasan Piker (@hasanthehun) was one of the most critical voices. In a tweet, he wrote: "Cuba has never been a threat to the U.S. Its only threat was being a successful alternative. A country that fought and won its sovereignty and dignity. We have starved them for that, and we never stopped. Between this and the New York Times article, we are manufacturing consensus for war."
Democratic Senator from Arizona Rubén Gallego, a veteran of the Iraq War, rejected the report in similarly strong terms: "No country in the economic and military situation that Cuba is in would preemptively attack a superpower like the U.S. This is just propaganda to build a case for an invasion of Cuba."
A more nuanced reading was provided by Daniel DePetris, a syndicated columnist for the Chicago Tribune specializing in foreign policy. In his analysis, DePetris acknowledged that Cuba's conventional military capability is outdated — "its Air Force should be in a museum" — and that acquiring drones makes strategic sense, but dismissed a preemptive attack as "highly unlikely, if not completely irrational." "In concrete terms: Cuba needs some defensive capability to withstand a possible U.S. military contingency. Havana is turning to drones instead of manned aircraft, which are much more expensive. This is Cuba preparing defenses, not an offensive action," he concluded.
On the opposite side of the debate, Republican Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart warned about the seriousness of the situation: "We have seen the threat posed by drones in the Middle East. Now they are 90 miles from our shores and near critical infrastructure. It is clear that the Cuban regime is a threat to national security."
The activist Manolo De Los Santos responded to Díaz-Balart accusing Cuban-American politicians of wanting to invade Cuba not for freedom or human rights, but to recover lost properties, labeling them as "warmongers and mobsters who have profited from lies."
The report from Axios arrives at a time of ongoing escalation between Washington and Havana. The Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed before Congress last Tuesday that Cuba poses a threat to national security and that the Russian nuclear submarine Kazán had used Cuban ports. Trump, for his part, declared a national emergency over Cuba on January 29 under the IEEPA, claiming that the regime poses an "unusual and extraordinary" threat to national security.
The prediction platform Polymarket recorded a 19% probability—an increase of six points—this Sunday that the United States will invade Cuba in 2026, while the likelihood of a military clash between the two countries ranged between 42% and 48%.
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