The president Donald Trump dismissed any military escalation against Cuba on Wednesday when asked by journalists, justifying his stance with a straightforward assessment of the state of the regime: "No. There will be no escalation. I don't think it's necessary. Look, the place is falling apart. It's a disaster, and they have lost control to some extent. They have really lost control of the people."
The statements come two days after Politico revealed that the Trump administration was evaluating military options against Cuba, ranging from targeted airstrikes to a possible ground invasion, and that Southern Command had convened planning sessions to develop courses of action.
The Politico itself clarified that no action was imminent and that the role of the Pentagon was to provide the president with the greatest number of possible options without implying a decision had been made.
Trump's words from this Wednesday confirm that reading: the chosen strategy is economic wear and internal collapse, not direct intervention.
Trump's bet is that the Cuban regime will collapse under its own weight. The island's economy has experienced a decline of over 23% since 2019, with a projected contraction of between 6.5% and 7.2% in 2026 alone.
The electrical system is experiencing deficits exceeding 1,850 MW during peak hours, with blackouts lasting up to 20 and 25 hours daily, and in March, there were two total collapses of the national grid.
Tourism dropped to just 35,561 visitors that same month, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information.
This scenario of collapse is precisely the argument that Trump and his inner circle have used to justify that there is no need to escalate.
On Tuesday, former national security advisor John Bolton predicted the fall of the Cuban regime in a short time, and Trump himself stated that addressing the issue of Cuba "will not be difficult" for the United States.
The economic pressure, on the other hand, has not eased. Since January 2026, the administration has imposed more than 240 new sanctions against Cuba, impacting the energy, defense, mining, and finance sectors.
On May 7, the Department of State sanctioned GAESA and Moa Nickel S.A., alleging control of approximately 20 billion dollars in illicit assets, giving third countries until June 5 to sever trade ties with these entities.
The Cuban regime has responded defiantly. Following the threats on May 2, the Communist Party of Cuba declared: “There will be no surrender in Cuba”, while Miguel Díaz-Canel stated that “no aggressor, no matter how powerful, will find surrender in Cuba.”
The Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz blamed the United States for the crisis on May 16 and stated that the regime will "continue" to resist.
In the U.S. Congress, more than 30 Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to Trump on May 14 urging him to rule out any military action against Cuba, describing it as "illegal" and "catastrophic."
However, the Senate had already rejected on April 29 a resolution that aimed to limit Trump's military powers over Cuba, with a vote of 51 to 47.
Wednesday's statement marks, at least for now, the limit of Trump's strategy: maximum economic pressure, regime change rhetoric, and the belief that Havana will collapse without a shot being fired.
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