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Ciego de Ávila closed the first quarter of 2026 without reversing any of its negative demographic trends: more deaths than births, an unfavorable migratory balance, and a population aging at a rate that outpaces any institutional response, according to an analysis published by the official newspaper Invasor.
The province follows the national pattern. Cuba closed 2024 with only 9,748,007 inhabitants, a decrease of 307,961 people compared to 2023, resulting from 71,358 births against 128,098 deaths and a negative external migration balance of -251,221 people.
The decline in birth rates is the most alarming indicator. By May 11, 2025, only 628 births had been registered in the province, compared to 925 during the same period in 2024, a decrease of nearly one third in just one year.
Among the factors explaining this contraction are maternal anemia, chronic hypertension associated with preeclampsia—which necessitates the interruption of pregnancies before 37 weeks—and low birth weight, which is more prevalent in the municipalities of Bolivia, Ciro Redondo, and the provincial capital itself.
Nationally, 2024 was the fourth consecutive year with fewer than 100,000 births, the lowest number in 65 years, with a total fertility rate of 1.29 children per woman, the lowest recorded in Cuban history.
The reverse of that decline is accelerated aging. 20% of the residents of Ciego de Ávila are over 60 years old, which amounts to 84,910 people, a figure that is already approaching the number of children and adolescents in the province.
The municipality of Florencia has the highest aging index: 25.2% of its population belongs to the elderly group, a figure that rose to 27% by the end of 2025, driven by the ongoing emigration of people of reproductive age.
Official projections for 2030 are bleak: Cuba will have 100,000 fewer inhabitants in the working age population, and those aged 60 years or older will approach 30% of the total. Ciego de Ávila is moving in the same direction.
Emigration is the factor that has most transformed the population structure of the province. As the official media itself points out, "emigration not only reduces the population volume: it primarily takes young people of working and reproductive age, which simultaneously exacerbates the birth deficit and aging."
In light of this situation, the regime upholds the Policy for Addressing Demographic Dynamics, approved in 2014 and updated in 2022. For 2025, funding of 2,456 million pesos is projected, which is 129% more than the previous year, allocated for gerontological equipment, Grandparents' Houses, Homes for the Elderly, and Children's Homes.
However, specialists themselves acknowledge that these measures are insufficient given the magnitude and speed of the deterioration. The Cuban exodus shows no signs of slowing down, and the dictatorship has not offered structural responses that address the root causes of the crisis: economic precariousness, power outages, shortages, and the lack of freedoms that drive Cubans to leave the island.
The analysis of the official newspaper concludes with a warning that encapsulates the seriousness of the moment: "Each birth that does not take place, each young person who emigrates, and each elderly adult who ages without the support they deserve is a statistic that the province — and the country — will have to confront with bolder, more integrated, and more urgent policies than those that have been sufficient so far."
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