The economist Elías Amor warned that Cuba is facing a critical fuel supply situation after the recent Russian oil donation was exhausted and there are no signs of new supplies. As he explained in an interview with Tania Costa, the shortage is already affecting the availability of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, while the country continues to have no normal access to international markets to finance crude oil purchases due to its history of defaults.
The immediate trigger is the lack of new supplies following that shipment. “It was a donation, no oil has come in since,” noted Amor, while Cubans report that there is no gasoline, diesel, or kerosene on the island. Airlines have begun to reduce flights due to a lack of aviation fuel, a direct consequence that Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy acknowledged in May when recognizing that there are not enough reserves of fuel oil or diesel.
Amor explains that domestically produced oil does not solve the mobility issue: "Cuban oil is not suitable for mobility; it cannot be transformed into diesel or gasoline. That oil must come from abroad."
The economist draws a direct historical line from the Special Period: Cuba has always relied on external subsidies to survive energetically, and the agreement with Venezuela under Hugo Chávez— which provided between 90,000 and 98,000 barrels daily—masked that structural incapacity for two decades.
"The Cuban economy has been like this since the special period. The thing is, oil was coming from Venezuela and everyone was happy," Amor stated.
The underlying issue, according to the economist, is not the U.S. embargo but the regime's history of defaults: "It's not the United States that's blocking Cuba; it's the financial markets that, when Cuba needs money, say 'no, because you don't pay.'"
Love cites the specific case of the investment fund CRF I Limited, which sued the Banco Nacional de Cuba in a London court. The British Supreme Court rejected the last Cuban appeal on March 31, 2025, and Cuba did not respond to a restructuring offer presented in January of that year. "You had an investment fund that filed a lawsuit against you in a London court. You had an opportunity to pay, you didn't pay, so now you have to deal with it, and we're not giving you any money," the economist summarized.
This situation, says Amor, is precisely what is on the table in the conversations between the United States and Cuba, because the regime can no longer rely on allies to rescue it: "There will no longer appear a Venezuela, nor a China, nor a Russia, nor a Sun Sun Corda to provide Cuba with oil ships in exchange for nothing."
The electricity deficit in Cuba was around 1,985 MW during peak hours this month, and Cuban airports issued notices of a lack of aviation fuel affecting all international terminals, including Havana, Varadero, Santa Clara, Camagüey, Holguín, and Santiago de Cuba.
"Cuba cannot continue functioning because no one gives anything to Cuba," concluded Amor, who insists that there is a need for "a lot of education for the world to understand what is happening in Cuba" and maintains that the only real solution is a negotiated democratic transition.
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