The economist Elías Amor stated in an interview with CiberCuba that "in the first days of June we are going to receive surprises" in Cuba, and that "it is very possible that something very important will happen in this process we are witnessing."
Amor acknowledged that the information he received is merely rumors and that he had not been given specific details about the nature of the changes.
"Perhaps I shouldn't have said anything because these are just rumors and such, but I wouldn't want to tarnish my program with this kind of thing," he admitted, before adding that "the hope we all have is for Cuba to be free and democratic, and I want it the most, because my time is running out."
The expert also noted that, according to the information received, "it is already agreed who will take on that position" following the eventual change, and that this transition will cause internal divisions within the Cuban system.
According to his experience, those divisions are precisely the mechanism that causes authoritarian regimes to fall: "When anomalies cannot be corrected, the system collapses."
The backdrop of these references is clear: the deadline set by OFAC for foreign companies and financial institutions to close their operations with GAESA, the Cuban military conglomerate, is June 5, under the threat of secondary sanctions.
This deadline was announced on May 7 by the State Department as part of Executive Order 14404 signed by Donald Trump on May 1. Additionally, on May 20, the U.S. Department of Justice filed seven federal criminal charges against Raúl Castro for the downing of the Brothers to the Rescue planes in 1996.
Amor also mentioned ironically that Raúl Castro turns 95 on June 3, and dismissed the idea that a "Maduro-style extraction" would make sense: "I believe that would just put the spotlight on the poor old man, and no one would recognize that he is a murderer."
The economist compared the situation to that of Francisco Franco in Spain in 1975: "Franco died in his bed and did not pay for any of the crimes committed months before his death."
This is not the first time the economist has made predictions of this nature. On April 30, in the same forum, he had already stated that Cuba would be free before the summer, comparing the potential change to what happened in Venezuela.
This forecast arises in a context of economic collapse: CEPAL predicts a decline in Cuba's GDP of 6.5% in 2026, the worst in Latin America and the Caribbean, while The Economist Intelligence Unit estimated a contraction of 7.2% in March.
The Trump administration has imposed more than 240 sanctions against Cuba since January 2026, with measures specifically targeting GAESA, in what analysts describe as the greatest external pressure on the regime in decades.
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