The exiled Cuban economist Elías Amor made a prediction this Thursday that has drawn attention among those following the debate about Cuba's future.
"I believe that before summer we will see a free Cuba and certainly a completely new situation compared to what we have had in the last 67 years," he said.
The statement was made during an economic analysis program on CiberCuba, where Amor discussed the devastating projections from CEPAL for Cuba in 2026, which place the country as the worst-performing economy in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a projected GDP decline of 6.5%, even worse than that of Haiti.
Amor was categorical in his optimism: "I believe that Cuba will transition to democracy and freedom much more quickly than Venezuela."
The analyst referenced the Venezuelan transition, where Delcy Rodríguez leads the process following Maduro's fall in January 2026.
According to Amor, Rodríguez "is a very intelligent and clever woman who has managed to position herself and convey a sense of calm and stability," but he warned: "In Cuba, there is no Delcy."
In dismissing the regime's figures as potential agents of change, Amor was blunt: "No, they're all a bunch of bloated communists who don't fit Delcy's profile."
He explicitly ruled out Josefina Vidal, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro "El cangrejo," and also Fidel Castro's grandson, Sandro Castro "who likes cars," for being profiles unable to lead a transition.
This diagnosis coincides with a moment when Díaz-Canel clings to power while Cuba sinks, having even admitted to not having spoken directly with Marco Rubio and rejecting demands for the release of political prisoners.
The major obstacle identified by Amor for the transition is the lack of leadership. "The problem we have in Cuba is that we don't have Adolfo Suárez. It's very sad. We don't have the architect of change."
The comparison with the Spanish transition is the model that Amor deems ideal. However, journalist Tania Costa pointed out during the debate that Suárez was "practically an anonymous person who, with the help of the king, successfully led the Spanish transition," and that "nobody would have wagered a dime on him before he took on that historic role."
That did not convince Amor. "In Cuba, you don't see any leaders; there are no leaders, no figures moving in that arena. This only heightens our desperation," the economist admitted.
Previous analyses had already warned about the five possible scenarios for Cuba, with negotiated partial reforms being the most likely, although total collapse is increasingly seen as feasible due to the accelerated deterioration.
Another analysis indicated that Cuba could drift towards a failed state if an orderly transition does not occur.
Regarding Washington's role in this process, Amor was emphatic: "We must try to ensure that the United States continues to help us and maintains that consideration which is necessary for Cubans," warning that in times of change "people often get carried away and can make mistakes."
The economic context that underpins structural pessimism is compelling. According to CEPAL, Cuba's GDP per capita dropped to 1,082.8 dollars in 2025, the lowest in the region compared to a regional average of 10,212 dollars.
Amor estimates that the Cuban economy will have contracted by almost 26% of its GDP since 2020, a magnitude comparable to the Special Period but prolonged over time.
The Economist Intelligence Unit estimated in March 2026 a contraction of the Cuban GDP by 7.2% for this year, with a cumulative decline of 23% since 2019, figures that reinforce the collapse scenario described by Amor as the threshold before change.
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