Related videos:
Paul Mauro, former inspector of the New York Police Department and contributor to Fox News, published a warning this week on his X account that has drawn attention in political analysis circles: "Cuba is close to falling," and when that happens, the regime's elites will seek to make deals with Washington for their protection.
"When a nation falls, the elites seek to make deals to save themselves. Like in: 'I’ll tell you anything you want to know.' This could get very interesting...", wrote Mauro in response to a message from May 26 on the @DataRepublican account, which in turn quoted an article from ZeroHedge.
Mauro, whose biography on X describes him as a lawyer, former NYPD member, and founder of Opsdesk.org, has experience in intelligence and counterterrorism, which gives him credibility with the U.S. conservative audience for this type of analysis.
The comment comes at a time of maximum pressure from the Trump administration on Havana. On May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana and met with high-ranking Cuban officials, including Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," and Interior Minister Lázaro Álvarez Casas.
Ratcliffe delivered a direct message from Trump: Washington is willing to engage on economic and security matters, but only if Cuba makes "fundamental changes."
Two days later, Trump declared that the regime "will have to come to us" to negotiate, and on May 20, he added that the U.S. "has the CIA there" and that his government is "liberating" the island.
On May 21, Trump described Cuba as a "failed state" and asserted that the U.S. is in a position of strength. On the same day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that "there is not much progress" in the negotiations and that Cuba "will not be able to continue buying time."
The scenario described by Mauro —elites willing to reveal sensitive information in exchange for protection— aligns with what analysts have begun to openly suggest. On May 29, Cuban-American scholars Michael J. Bustamante and Ricardo Herrero published in Foreign Affairs that "time is running out" for the Cuban regime and proposed a negotiation before the pressure leads to a humanitarian collapse.
The pressure on the regime's leadership has also become both nominal and direct: the State Department imposed sanctions in May against 11 elites linked to the Cuban security apparatus and three government officials.
Cuba is experiencing its worst crisis since the Special Period, with oil reserves lasting only 15 to 20 days, blackouts of up to 30 hours, and a reported power generation deficit of 1,885 MW as of the end of March.
The regime itself acknowledged on May 28 that "there has been no progress in negotiations with the U.S.," while Rubio has made it clear what the non-negotiable condition is: "Their system of government must change."
Filed under: