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The Cuban opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer responded decisively this Monday to the analysis published by the Spanish outlet El Confidencial regarding a potential intervention in Cuba, dismissing its conclusions and asserting that the Castro dictatorship is in its final stages.
"Confidentially, I tell you that the 'Confidential' is lost; we do not know what is being said about this issue. The communist regime is finished and is falling faster than Nicolás Maduro," Ferrer wrote in his post on Facebook, in direct reference to the capture of the Venezuelan dictator on January 3, 2026, in the so-called "Operation Absolute Resolution."
The article from El Confidencial, authored by G. M. Piantadosi and E. Torrico and published on May 31, warned that the U.S. could fail in a plan to intervene in Cuba, comparing the strategy of the Trump administration to the failed Operation Mongoose of the 1960s.
The text from the Spanish medium concluded that a direct intervention is still considered unlikely by most experts, despite the sustained escalation in recent months: the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz arrived in the Caribbean on May 20, the Pentagon has carried out planning exercises that range from airstrikes to a ground invasion, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that "Cuba is in serious trouble."
Ferrer, who has been living in Miami since his forced exile from Cuba in October 2025, has been insisting for months that the regime is on the verge of collapse.
On May 17, he stated that a military action by the U.S. "is going to happen" and that the high command of the dictatorship will not accept a voluntary transition.
On May 11, from Warsaw, he stated that the regime "will not survive this year."
In early May, he appeared before the European Parliament to denounce that Cuba is experiencing "the worst crisis in its modern history."
The fall of Maduro is the central argument that Ferrer uses to refute those who doubt that something similar could happen in Cuba: what once seemed unthinkable—a direct action by the U.S. to overthrow a Latin American dictator—became a real precedent on January 3, 2026.
The Cuban economic context supports this narrative of collapse: CEPAL estimates a GDP contraction of 6.5% for 2026, while The Economist Intelligence Unit projects a decline of 7.2%, with a cumulative contraction nearing 23% since 2019.
President Donald Trump himself dismissed on May 20 the need for escalation, arguing that Cuba "is collapsing," while the Pentagon has insisted that "there is no planned or imminent invasion."
Ferrer, however, rejects any interpretation that suggests strength or survival of the Castro regime, and his response to El Confidencial aligns with this stance: on May 2, he had already warned repressors and collaborators that "the tyranny will soon fall" and urged them to break away from the regime.
In a later post, the opposition leader said: "It is truly striking, unusual, curious, and even ridiculous to hear 'analysts' claim that any military operation by the U.S. to put an end to the Castro-communist regime would ultimately fail."
He was emphatic in stating that those assertions "demonstrate an extreme ignorance of the current Cuban reality, the feelings of the people, including many military personnel, and the military backwardness of the Castro regime in relation to the incredible advances of the United States."
Furthermore, he stated that it would be a mistake to compare a military action today with the Bay of Pigs invasion or the so-called Operation Mongoose in the 1960s, "it's a nonsense as big as Planet Jupiter. The Cuban communist regime is finished, it just needs a little push."
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