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Democratic lawmakers in the United States Congress are pushing for a new war powers resolution to prevent President Donald Trump from attacking Cuba without Congressional approval, as revealed in a report by the media NOTUS this Monday.
Senators Tim Kaine, Adam Schiff, and Ruben Gallego are leading the initiative in the Senate, where a similar measure failed on April 29 by a vote of 51-47, with Democrat John Fetterman voting alongside Republicans and only Susan Collins and Rand Paul supporting the measure from the Republican side.
In the House of Representatives, Congress members Gregory Meeks and Nydia Velázquez are promoting a parallel resolution with the same objective: to require the Executive to gain the support of Congress before taking any military action against the island.
The fear of a prolonged conflict is not limited to the Democrats.
"I believe that a war with Cuba would be one of those wars that are easy to enter and difficult to exit," warned William LeoGrande, a Cuba expert from American University, noting that the United States could end up trying to govern the country "in the same way it ended up trying to govern Iraq."
Washington's military pressure on Havana has notably intensified in recent weeks.
The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group has been operating in the Caribbean since May 20, while U.S. surveillance drones and planes have logged over 150 flight hours around Cuba since February.
The Pentagon has stationed troops and equipment to act quickly if Trump gives the final order, with options ranging from precision strikes to an attempt to take control of the Cuban government.
Trump himself stated to reporters in early May: "Other presidents have been considering this for 50 or 60 years, looking for solutions. And it seems that I will be the one to do it. So I would be happy to do it."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Cuba as a "failed state 145 kilometers from our shores" and a threat to national security during a cabinet meeting held last Wednesday.
However, analysts warn that opening a new front while the United States manages the conflict with Iran would be a strategic mistake.
Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that some munitions used in Iran are already in short supply, and that each missile deployed in another theater reduces the availability in the event of a potential crisis with China in the Western Pacific.
Even the Republican representative Don Bacon, a retired Air Force general, expressed his reservations: "I would be concerned about overstepping, and I believe it's not the right time. Let's focus on Iran, let's finish what we are doing in Venezuela."
Cuba is experiencing its worst energy crisis in decades, with generation deficits exceeding 1,955 MW during peak hours and power outages lasting up to 24 hours in various provinces.
The cut in Venezuelan oil supply —which accounted for 30% of Cuban consumption, about 27,000 barrels per day— has worsened the situation, while Russia and China have not filled the gap.
None of the experts consulted believe that an attack is imminent, and they all interpret the current pressure as a tool to force concessions from the regime.
However, LeoGrande warned that military action remains "absolutely" on the table if Cuba refuses to accept the conditions set by the United States.
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