The journalist Marc Caputo, White House reporter for Axios, stated this Thursday on the Morning Joe program that a U.S. military intervention in Cuba is a real possibility that Pentagon planners are already considering, although he clarified that it is "the possibility, not the probability" of it happening.
Caputo attended the program to discuss his exclusive report on Trump’s pressure on Cuba, published on May 26, in which he revealed that the White House is preparing for a potential collapse of the Cuban regime as early as this summer.
"There is a level of pressure being applied like never before from the United States towards Cuba," Caputo stated during the interview.
The journalist revealed that Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), which oversees military operations in the Caribbean, conducted an interagency simulation exercise last month to analyze various scenarios, including the threat of Cuban drones and the possibility of a serious incident during the summer.
Caputo explained that Washington has restricted the supply of fuel and oil to the island, leaving Cuba without enough electricity for food refrigeration or for the population to withstand the heat. "The United States has essentially taken control of trade with Cuba. It has restricted fuel; oil no longer enters Cuba, in part because Cuba has no money," he noted.
The journalist drew a direct parallel with the July 11, 2021, when extreme heat and blackouts triggered massive protests in more than 43 Cuban cities that the regime brutally repressed. Now, with electrical shortages exceeding 2,100 MW and blackouts lasting up to 22 hours daily, U.S. military planners are considering what might happen if Washington decided to intervene to protect protesters suppressed by the regime.
Caputo also outlined three fundamental differences between Cuba and Venezuela that complicate any regime change operation in the island. Firstly, in Venezuela, the Trump administration cultivated Delcy Rodríguez as a transitional figure before the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026; in Cuba, there is no identified equivalent. According to Caputo, one of the administration's advisors described the search as looking for someone "like Delcy" or "Delcy lights," but with no success so far.
Secondly, the Cuban power structure is not vertical: "If you remove Raúl Castro, who is 94 years old, it really won't change much, not to mention that capturing him would be complicated," said the journalist.
The third factor is the embargo, codified in federal law since 1996 through the Helms-Burton Act, unlike the sanctions against Venezuela, which were executive orders. Any change in Cuba requires approval from Congress or the fulfillment of three conditions: releasing political prisoners, holding free elections, and ensuring civil rights. "It's a much tougher bone to chew in Cuba than in Venezuela," Caputo concluded.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared on Wednesday that the chances of a negotiated agreement with Cuba are "not high" and described the island as "a failing state 90 miles from our shores," while President Trump has said he does not believe a military escalation is necessary because "the place is falling apart."
Filed under: