The Cuban economist Elías Amor stated this Thursday that he is "convinced" that the negotiation process between the United States and Cuba includes a secret "casting" to identify who could lead a political transition on the island once Miguel Díaz-Canel and his inner circle leave power.
The analysis of Amor arose in response to the recent statements made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who indicated before the U.S. Congress that there are technocrats in Cuba that Washington could work with to facilitate political change. Rubio stated, "Clearly there are individuals within the power structure who understand that what they have is not sustainable and must be rebuilt."
"I am convinced that the negotiation process between the United States and Cuba is conducting a casting. I believe they are trying to see whom they can let take over once Miguel Díaz-Canel and his entire entourage exit the situation," stated Amor in an interview with Tania Costa.
The economist drew parallels with two known transition processes: the Spanish one after Franco's regime, where technocrats led the system change, and the Venezuelan case with Delcy Rodríguez, whom he described as a technocratic profile used as a negotiating interlocutor with external actors.
"They are betting on technocrats, individuals with a understanding of reality who have a broad enough vision to know how to switch from black to white or from white to black," explained Amor.
The economist went further by suggesting that this hypothetical Cuban technocrat could emerge from the regime itself. "That technocrat might very well be from the regime, a figure linked to Castro, but when they take on the role, they shed that label and become the leader of a process of political and economic transformation. And if that's the case, then welcome. Because what I want is for Cuba to change," he stated.
Amor categorically rejected any scenario of violence. "What I will not support is the army coming in and killing people. No, I will never defend that. I believe in a peaceful transition that brings together all Cubans, even the communists who have caused so much harm to their fellow Cubans," he stated.
Regarding the role of the regime's officials in that process, the economist was pragmatic: "We will have to gradually remove them from circulation or reassign them."
He also emphasized that the fundamental condition is that the change must be led from within. "I am sure that the change has to be made by a Cuban from Cuba. And if it can be an expert technocrat, even better. In that sense, Marco Rubio is in that line. I am listening to the words of Marco Rubio," he concluded.
The debate over who could embody that profile is not new. In January of this year, the question of who would be "the Cuban Delcy" was openly raised, precisely anticipating this scenario of technocrats as a bridge towards a transition.
The analysis of Amor takes place at a time of unprecedented collapse of Cuban tourism, with a drop of 55.8% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period the previous year, with only 328,608 international visitors and a hotel occupancy rate that does not exceed 10%, a context that the economist considers a catalyst for any political change process on the island.
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