The journalist and analyst Jorge de Armas ironically asked in a recent interview with Tania Costa on CiberCuba whether Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, nicknamed "El Cangrejo" and grandson of Raúl Castro, could become a figure comparable to Mikhail Gorbachev, that is, a catalyst for political change in Cuba from within the power structure.
The central argument of De Armas is based on a concrete fact: "El Cangrejo" is not listed among those sanctioned by Washington in the package of June 4, 2026, which included Miguel Díaz-Canel, his wife Lis Cuesta Peraza, Alejandro Castro Espín, the MINFAR, the MININT, and the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, among others.
"I am not saying that El Cangrejo could eventually become a historically significant figure that fosters change in Cuba," De Armas stated.
"Notice that he is not among those sanctioned. It's what I was telling you at the beginning: the figures that can negotiate are not sanctioned," the analyst added.
De Armas distinguishes between symbolic sanctions—aimed at fulfilling the historical aspirations of the Cuban exile community—and strategic sanctions, which reveal whom Washington is willing to negotiate with.
In that second group, the Chancellor Bruno Rodríguez, the Deputy Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío, and the entire structure of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs remain intact.
"The structure of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not sanctioned. Those people are fine," he noted.
In contrast, the sanction against Alejandro Castro Espín —described by De Armas as the "former interlocutor with the director of the CIA"— would signal that Washington has ruled him out of the transition process or sees him as an obstacle.
"Once Alejandro Castro Espín is sanctioned, he becomes the only one in the Castro family to be penalized, which means he has been removed from the transition, is an obstacle to the transition, or is not part of it," stated the analyst.
This reading gains significance when considering that the director of the CIA met in Havana with "El Cangrejo" last May, according to media reports, which made him the focal point of speculation about who truly holds power on the island.
To support his thesis, De Armas points to the contradictory behavior of the Trump administration. When Marco Rubio was asked in a hearing about the sanctions against Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello in Venezuela, he hesitated and responded that "the laws of the United States have not changed, the laws of the United States are the same as yesterday."
However, "in essence, the highest military figure in the United States was in Venezuela a couple of days ago and met with Jorge Rodríguez, who is a sanctioned individual by the U.S. government. Sanctioned, not only sanctioned: wanted," De Armas noted.
This pattern, the analyst concludes, shows that there is a "high-stakes political game" underway where formal sanctions and actual contacts operate on parallel levels, and where Cubans are excluded "through our own fault."
De Armas concluded with a direct criticism of the exile community. "We have not learned to build alliances. The exile in the United States is at odds with the exile in Miami. The figures are vilified," she lamented, pointing to fragmentation as the main obstacle for the Cuban community abroad to influence a potential transition.
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