The journalist and analyst Jorge de Armas ironically questioned in a recent interview with Tania Costa on CiberCuba whether Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, nicknamed “El Cangrejo” and grandson of Raúl Castro, could become a figure comparable to Mikhail Gorbachev, that is, a catalyst for political change in Cuba from within the power structure.
The central argument of De Armas is based on a specific fact: "El Cangrejo" is not included among those sanctioned by Washington in the package of June 4, 2026, which included Miguel Díaz-Canel, his wife Lis Cuesta Peraza, Alejandro Castro Espín, the MINFAR, the MININT, and the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, among others.
"I'm not saying that El Cangrejo could eventually become a historical figure of unusual caliber that brings about change in Cuba," De Armas stated.
"Notice that he is not among those sanctioned. It's what I was telling you at the beginning: the figures who can engage in conversation are not sanctioned," the analyst added.
De Armas differentiates between symbolic sanctions—intended to fulfill the historical desires of the Cuban exile community—and strategic sanctions, which reveal with whom Washington actually wants to negotiate.
In that second group, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez, Deputy Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío, and the entire structure of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs remain unchanged.
"The structure of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not sanctioned. Those people are fine," he noted.
In contrast, the sanction against Alejandro Castro Espín —described by De Armas as the "previous interlocutor with the director of the CIA"— would be a signal that Washington has ruled him out of the transition process or considers him an obstacle.
"Once Alejandro Castro Espín is sanctioned, then the only one sanctioned from the Castro family, it means they have removed him from the transition, or that he is an obstacle to the transition, or that they do not count on him," stated the analyst.
This reading gains strength when considering that the director of the CIA met in Havana with "El Cangrejo" last May, according to press reports, which turned him into the center of speculation about who truly wields power on the island.
To support his thesis, De Armas points to the contradictory behavior of the Trump administration. When Marco Rubio was asked at a hearing about the sanctions on Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello in Venezuela, he hesitated and replied that "the laws of the United States have not changed, the laws of the United States are the same as yesterday."
However, "essentially, the highest military figure in the United States was in Venezuela a couple of days ago and met with Jorge Rodríguez, who is a figure sanctioned by the U.S. government. Sanctioned, not only sanctioned: wanted," De Armas stated.
This pattern, the analyst concludes, shows that there is a "high-stakes political game" underway where formal sanctions and real contacts operate on parallel levels, and where Cubans are excluded "due to our own fault."
De Armas concluded with a direct critique of the exile. "We have not known how to build alliances. The exile in the United States is at odds with the exile in Miami. The figures are vilified," he lamented, pointing to fragmentation as the main obstacle preventing the Cuban community abroad from influencing a potential transition.
Filed under: