The researcher Jorge Piñón from the Energy Institute of the University of Texas revealed that experts had estimated that Cuba's strategic inventories would be depleted by the end of March or the first week of April 2026, but that "zero moment" has not yet arrived, which has surprised analysts.
"We originally, the so-called experts, had estimated that by the end of March or the first week of April, the strategic inventories we had projected, what Cuba had, would already have been exhausted," Piñón stated in an interview with Tania Acosta.
The expert admitted that the calculations failed: "We've been in a situation for two months now, wondering where this fuel is coming from."
The explanation provided by Piñón is that Cuba had much greater strategic reserves than estimated, partly because the tankers docked in Cuban ports would have been used as floating storage.
"The possible tankers that are now anchored in various Cuban ports have been used as floating storage, meaning they were not empty; rather, they were filled with fuel oil, then with diesel, and then with gasoline, and that is part of the inventory," he explained.
The original calculations only considered the reserves in the three main refineries—Havana, Santiago de Cuba, and Cienfuegos—and in some smaller distribution terminals, without accounting for that floating volume.
However, Piñón warned that the current situation in his model is critical: "We are currently in a study where we have a zero in the line that says reserves."
The external supply outlook is equally bleak. The researcher described the case of the Russian tanker Universal, which was adrift for weeks in the Atlantic: “It spent almost 20, 21 days just going around in circles without going anywhere. Eventually, it took a route south and reached Brazil, and it is now in Brazil.”
Piñón interpreted that episode as a sign that Russia, despite its public promises, does not dare to challenge U.S. sanctions: "Even the Russians, for some reason, have come to fear the United States, and have not entered Cuba."
The contrast between the words and actions of Moscow is striking for the expert: "We have seen statements from the ambassador, we have seen statements from Moscow: 'we are here ready to help our Cuban brothers.' And we have not seen... when a Russian freighter or tanker approaches Cuban waters, it backs down, does not enter, and retreats."
This analysis comes days after the United States officially sanctioned CUPET last Wednesday, under Executive Order 14404 signed by Trump on May 1, 2026, blocking any transactions by U.S. individuals or companies with the state-owned enterprise that controls the entire oil chain on the island.
On the same day, Miami-Dade revoked Vanguard Energy's license, a company that had announced plans to export fuel to Cuba, after it was revealed that the State Department had not authorized that operation.
Mexico also offers no solution: "Mexico is not sending any oil. We believe it will not send any in the coming months," Piñón stated.
The Cuban Minister of Energy, Vicente de la O Levy, admitted on May 14 that the country had "absolutely no fuel, no diesel, only associated gas," a confession that illustrates the scale of a crisis that, according to Piñón, will worsen even further when the time for transition in Cuba arrives.
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