The Cuban writer and political analyst Orlando Luis Pardo Lazo dismisses the idea that Marco Rubio's actions as Secretary of State are merely an electoral calculation to retain the Cuban-American vote in Florida, arguing that the official has a much greater objective in mind: the presidency of the United States.
Pardo Lazo made this analysis in an interview with CiberCuba recorded in the context of the visit of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to the Guantánamo Naval Base, where last Wednesday he issued military warnings to the Cuban regime.
In response to the question of whether Rubio's policy towards Cuba is "a performance to gain votes in the upcoming elections," the analyst did not completely dismiss the idea but warned of the consequences: "It seems like a very expensive performance, and what is going to happen is that President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are going to bury themselves deeply in the next elections."
However, Pardo Lazo made it clear that he does not believe that to be the case.
"I believe that Marco Rubio knows very well what he is doing," he stated, adding that using politics toward Cuba solely to maintain the votes of the community in Florida would be "an obsolete, outdated, anachronistic scenario," typical of those who "do not know what they are doing."
For the analyst, the key is to understand Rubio's new political dimension: "Marco Rubio no longer needs Florida's vote for the rest of his life. Marco Rubio is playing for the presidency of the United States of America."
Pardo Lazo positions him as a figure who aspires to "be part of a team, vice president, president, or president at a given moment," and emphasizes that "he is a national figure that all politicians now rely on."
"Marco Rubio is not a senator, he is not a local senator. And he was one in 2016," he clarified, emphasizing the distance between the Rubio of that time and the current Secretary of State.
Pardo Lazo himself admitted to having taken that path: "I supported him with a shirt that says 'For Marco' from day one. Then, when I saw Trump's figure, I turned towards Trump's figure."
The analysis of the Cuban writer aligns with concrete signals from the Republican landscape. Rubio was confirmed as Secretary of State in January 2025 with a vote of 99-0, becoming the first Hispanic to lead U.S. diplomacy, which significantly raised his national and international profile.
In the prediction markets for the 2028 elections, Rubio appeared in March with 19%, nearly tied with JD Vance and Gavin Newsom.
A group of Republican donors discussed in March a strategy to promote a potential Rubio candidacy in 2028, while Trump himself fueled speculation by stating on June 3 in the New York Post's podcast "Pod Force One" that a Vance-Rubio ticket would be "very difficult to beat": "I like both of them... I don't know how you could beat them if they run together."
Rubio has publicly stated that he would not run for president in 2028 if Vance decides to run, suggesting that he is negotiating his position within the post-Trump Republican ecosystem rather than completely closing that door.
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