The peace agreement between the United States and Iran, announced this Sunday by Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, triggered an immediate drop in oil prices on Monday.
However, experts warn that consumers will have to wait months before seeing real relief in gasoline prices.
According to data from The Associated Press, Brent oil fell by 4.6% on Monday, decreasing by $3.45 to $83.89 per barrel, while the benchmark crude in the U.S. (WTI) dropped by $4.03 to settle at $80.85.
Despite the positive reaction, those prices remain well above the nearly 70 dollars per barrel that oil was trading at before the war began.
The impact of the conflict on prices
The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, with the "Epic Fury Operation," caused oil prices to surge to exceed 125 dollars per barrel.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz -through which 20% of the world's oil passes- collapsed naval traffic by 97% and raised the average price of gasoline in the U.S. to $4.48 per gallon in May, 50% higher than before the war.
California recorded prices of $6.10 per gallon.
Trump confirmed the agreement with Iran on Truth Social with a triumphant message: "Let the oil flow!" authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
Why won't prices drop immediately?
Daniel Evans, global head of research on fuels and refining at S&P Global Energy, explained that tankers loaded with crude have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over three months without being able to safely navigate the shipping lane.
"It will take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place... especially to deploy personnel on the ground and restart some of these assets," Evans noted.
The expert added that "in order for a ship to come in, one must be certain that there is a sufficiently wide safety window for it to enter, load, and leave."
Who will recover faster and who will take longer?
Alan Gelder, senior vice president of Wood Mackenzie, noted that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -with alternative pipelines to the Strait- could be among the quickest to resume production.
However, he warned that Iraq will face greater difficulties.
"Places like Iraq could face many more difficulties because they have shut down much more production, their fields are more complex... it is very likely that it will take them about a year to restart," he asserted.
Daniel Sternoff, researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, added another warning: countries that shut down production will not want to restart until they know that the strait will be stable and that the ceasefire will last more than 30 or 60 days.
"We do not know what 'open' means nor what the release speed of the trapped material will be," he pointed out.
The roadmap for the consumer
The uncertainty remains because, as of Sunday evening, Tehran had not issued an official confirmation of the agreement.
The official signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.
According to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, the recovery will be gradual: a third of the increase could be reversed in one to three months, another third between three and six months, and a return to prices before the crisis would not occur until early to mid-2027.
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