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The peace agreement between the United States and Iran, announced on Sunday by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, caused an immediate drop in oil prices this Monday, but experts warn that consumers will have to wait months before seeing real relief at the pump.
According to data from The Associated Press collected by Telemundo Dallas, Brent crude fell 4.6% this Monday, decreasing by $3.45 to $83.89 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark crude (WTI) lost $4.03, settling at $80.85. Despite the positive reaction, these prices remain well above the nearly $70 per barrel at which oil was trading before the war began.
The impact of the conflict on prices
The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, with the "Epic Fury Operation," drove oil prices to surpass $125 per barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz —through which 20% of the world's oil passes— caused maritime traffic to collapse by 97%, and raised the average price of gasoline in the U.S. to $4.48 per gallon in May, 50% higher than before the war. California even recorded prices of $6.10 per gallon.
Trump confirmed the agreement on Truth Social with a triumphant message: "Let the oil flow!", authorizing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
Why prices won't drop immediately
Daniel Evans, global head of research for fuels and refining at S&P Global Energy, explained that vessels loaded with crude oil have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over three months, unable to safely navigate the maritime route.
"It will take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place... especially to deploy personnel on the ground and restart some of these assets," Evans noted.
The expert added that "for a ship to enter, it is necessary to be certain that there is a sufficiently wide safety window for it to come in, load, and leave."
Who recovers faster and who will take longer?
Alan Gelder, senior vice president of Wood Mackenzie, noted that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates —with alternative pipelines to the strait— could be among the quickest to resume production.
However, he warned that Iraq will face greater difficulties: "Places like Iraq could have many more challenges because they have shut down much more production, their fields are more complex... it is very likely that it will take them about a year to recover."
Daniel Sternoff, a researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, added another warning: countries that halted production will be reluctant to restart until they are certain that the strait will be stable and that the ceasefire will last longer than 30 or 60 days. "We don't know what 'open' means or what the outflow speed of the trapped material will be," he noted.
The roadmap for the consumer
The uncertainty remains because, as of Sunday’s close, Tehran had not issued an official confirmation of the agreement. The official signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.
According to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, the recovery will be gradual: a third of the increase could reverse in one to three months, another third between three to six months, and a return to pre-crisis prices would not occur until early or mid 2027.
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