An analysis published this Wednesday by CNN reveals the true state of the Cuban Armed Forces: hundreds of videos and images released by the regime in recent months, far from projecting strength, expose a deeply deteriorated army operating with outdated Soviet equipment and lacking sufficient fuel for its aircraft.
The expert on Cuban politics Frank Mora explained to CNN that the audiovisual material is deliberately designed to project defiance, not real capability. "In the last 35 years, there is no doubt that these first-world armed forces have now become, at best, a shadow of what they used to be," he stated.
The contrast with the past is striking. In the early 1990s, the Revolutionary Armed Forces had over 235,000 active personnel, top-tier Soviet weaponry, and were regarded, according to analysts of the time, as "first world armed forces in a third world country."
Today, experts estimate that the number of active personnel has fallen to a maximum of 50,000, less than a quarter of its peak.
The images analyzed by CNN starkly illustrate this decline. In April, during military exercises in Villa Clara, a Soviet ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun was towed by oxen, prompting mockery on social media.
Other videos show dilapidated military trucks, Cold War-era Russian anti-air systems, and special forces crossing zip lines just meters away from civilian taxis and motorcycles.
In the face of the inability to maintain a competitive conventional force, Cuban military planners have adopted since the 1990s what retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian describes as a "hedgehog strategy": training in asymmetric guerrilla tactics to make any attempt at conquest as costly as possible.
The latest videos from the Revolutionary Armed Forces show soldiers on motorcycles with grenade launchers, trenches dug into the ground, and armored vehicles camouflaged in the jungle.
The elite unit Avispas Negras – the Cuban equivalent of the Navy SEALs – training in martial arts alone in an asphalt courtyard marked with four square game lines. The caption of the video reads: "Ready to defend the homeland."
The Air Force presents an even bleaker picture. The MiG fighters that were operated during the Cold War are practically non-operational due to a lack of spare parts and fuel.
Their only visible assets in public statements are Soviet-designed Mi-17 helicopters, used for low-risk missions. As Mora pointed out, it is difficult to operate a fourth-generation Russian fighter jet without fuel.
In May, Axios reported that Cuba had acquired over 300 military drones from Russia and Iran since 2023. The regime strongly denied the report, although the Ministry of the Armed Forces (MINFAR) did not explicitly refute it.
Cancian warned that, if they exist, those drones would only provide a temporary boost to offensive capability, leaving the regime without options for sustained response.
All of this takes place amid unprecedented U.S. pressure. The Trump administration has imposed more than 240 sanctions against Cuba, intercepted at least seven tankers, and directly sanctioned MINFAR, as well as Miguel Díaz-Canel and his closest associates.
The Secretary of War Pete Hegseth visited the Guantanamo Naval Base on June 10 and warned that it would be "reckless" for Cuba to acquire weapons capable of reaching the base or the continental United States.
The rhetoric of the regime mirrors point by point that of the dictator Fidel Castro, who declared in 1990 that Cuba would rather become another "Numancia" than surrender.
Díaz-Canel repeated this script in April when he declared to Newsweek: «if we fall in battle, dying for the homeland is living». Mora concludes that the current Cuban leadership follows the same script, «making it clear that they are prepared to fight to the end even though they lack the capabilities».
Filed under: