The dollar gained ground again this Thursday in the informal Cuban market, reaching an average selling price of 620 Cuban pesos (CUP), according to data from elTOQUE.
The increase of 10 CUP compared to Wednesday marks two consecutive days of rising and consolidates what analysts describe as a partial rebound following the significant correction in the last days of June.
On Wednesday, July 1, the dollar had already risen from 605 CUP on June 30 to 610 CUP. With the new increase this Thursday, the U.S. currency has experienced a recovery of 15 CUP in just 48 hours from that recent low.
This upward revision comes after the dollar reached its historic high of 695 CUP on June 21, the same day the euro also hit its own selling record at 800 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Since that peak, the U.S. dollar has lost 90 pesos over nine days, with a particularly sharp decline on June 26.
The euro and the MLC remain unchanged
While the dollar regains ground, the other two benchmark currencies remain stable today.
The euro remains at 700 CUP for the fourth consecutive day, a level it reached after falling from 800 CUP.
The MLC (Freely Convertible Currency) remains stable as well, valued at 500 CUP.
Exchange rate today 02/07/2026 - 7:41 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 620 CUP.
Exchange rate of the Euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 700 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 500 CUP.
The pattern of currency “overshooting”
The analysts at elTOQUE have explained this type of movement as a recurring phenomenon in the Cuban economy since 2022.
According to your analysis on the exchange rate overshooting in Cuba, "in the face of a change in expectations, whether it's an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets beyond what the actual fundamentals of the economy justify."
The most recent trigger was the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which for the first time since 1959 includes the authorization of private banking and a digital currency market.
The announcement generated a wave of expectations that drove currencies to historic highs, followed by a subsequent correction.
However, elTOQUE warns that the rebound does not signify a real improvement: “when the market finishes assimilating the true magnitude of that change, it corrects. But the correction is never complete. The new floor remains higher than the previous one.”
The medium also points out the so-called "herd effect" as the driving force behind these fluctuations: "people buy currencies not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
Skepticism of independent economists
Independent economists do not share the optimism that some sectors project regarding the regime's measures.
The economist Pedro Monreal González referred to the package of 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" and was unequivocal: "the numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like this is not a math problem, but a matter of will."
Pavel Vidal, specialist at the Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi), agrees that “Cuban foreign exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism”, even though the structural fundamentals have not changed.
The Cuban peso: A six-year free fall
The background that explains these upheavals is devastating. In 2020, the dollar was valued at 42 CUP in the informal market.
In January 2026, it had already reached 435 CUP. On June 21 of this year, it hit 695 CUP.
In just six years, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value.
ElTOQUE summarizes it clearly: "that direction depends on the real scarcity of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, the fiscal deficit, and the structural distrust in the Cuban peso. As long as those conditions remain unchanged, the rate will ultimately rise again."
Pavel Vidal, for his part, warned that “it will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope.”
Equivalent of United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of July 2:
1 USD = 620 CUP.
5 USD = 3,100 CUP.
10 USD = 6,200 CUP.
20 USD = 12,400 CUP.
50 USD = 31,000 CUP.
100 USD = 62,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 700 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,500 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,000 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,000 CUP.
50 EUR = 35,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 70,000 CUP.
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