The dollar gained ground again this Thursday in the informal Cuban market, reaching an average selling price of 620 Cuban pesos (CUP), according to data from elTOQUE.
The increase of 10 CUP compared to Wednesday marks two consecutive days of rising and solidifies what analysts describe as a partial rebound following the sharp decline in the last days of June.
On Wednesday, July 1st, the dollar had already risen from 605 CUP on June 30th to 610 CUP. With the new increase this Thursday, the U.S. currency has accumulated a recovery of 15 CUP in just 48 hours since that recent low.
This upward correction comes after the dollar reached its historic high of 695 CUP on June 21, the same day the euro reached its own sales record of 800 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
From that peak, the US dollar experienced a decline of 90 pesos in nine days, with a particularly sharp drop on June 26.
The euro and the MLC remain unchanged
While the dollar is regaining ground, the other two benchmark currencies remain stable today.
The euro remains at 700 CUP for the fourth consecutive day, a level it reached after declining from 800 CUP.
The MLC (Freely Convertible Currency) remains unchanged as well, valued at 500 CUP.
Exchange rate today 02/07/2026 - 7:41 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 620 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 700 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 500 CUP.
The pattern of «overshooting» exchange rate
The analysts at elTOQUE have described this type of movement as a recurring phenomenon in the Cuban economy since 2022.
According to your analysis on the exchange rate overshooting in Cuba, "in the face of a change in expectations, whether it is an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets beyond what the actual fundamentals of the economy justify."
The most recent trigger was the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which for the first time since 1959 includes the authorization of private banking and a digital currency market.
The announcement generated a wave of expectations that pushed currencies to historic highs, followed by a subsequent correction.
However, elTOQUE warns that the rebound does not imply a real improvement: “when the market fully absorbs the true magnitude of that change, it corrects. But the correction is never complete. The new floor remains higher than the previous one.”
The medium also points out the so-called "herd effect" as a driver of these fluctuations: "people buy foreign currency not because they have rationally evaluated the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
Skepticism of independent economists
Independent economists do not share the optimism that some sectors project regarding the regime's measures.
The economist Pedro Monreal González described the package of 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" and was blunt: "the numbers do not add up, and the government wants to make it appear that this is not a mathematical problem, but a matter of will."
Pavel Vidal, an expert from the Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi), agrees that "Cuban exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism", even though the structural fundamentals have not changed.
The Cuban peso: A six-year free fall
The background explaining these upheavals is devastating. In 2020, the dollar was valued at 42 CUP in the informal market.
In January 2026, it had already reached 435 CUP. On June 21 of this year, it hit 695 CUP.
In just six years, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value.
ElTOQUE summarizes it clearly: "This direction depends on the real shortage of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, the fiscal deficit, and the structural distrust in the Cuban peso. As long as these conditions remain unchanged, the rate will end up rising again."
Pavel Vidal, for his part, warned that “it will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope.”
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates on this July 2:
1 USD = 620 CUP.
5 USD = 3,100 CUP.
10 USD = 6,200 CUP.
20 USD = 12,400 CUP.
50 USD = 31,000 CUP.
100 USD = 62,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 700 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,500 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,000 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,000 CUP.
50 EUR = 35,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 70,000 CUP.
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