In recent hours, the U.S. dollar has reversed its downward trend in the Cuban informal market and surprises this Wednesday with a rebound, according to data from elTOQUE.
The freely convertible currency (MLC) also increased in price, reinforcing its upward trend.
At 7:00 a.m. (Cuban local time), the dollar is selling for an average of 610 CUP on the streets of Cuba, exactly recovering what was lost on Tuesday.
In the case of the MLC, it also scales by five units and is priced at 500 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The euro, for its part, has registered its third consecutive day without fluctuations and remains at 700 CUP.
Exchange rate today 01/07/2026 - 7:41 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 610 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 700 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 500 CUP.
A rebound after the fall from historic highs
This upward movement comes after a sustained correction that began on June 21, when the dollar hit its all-time high of 695 CUP and the euro approached 800 CUP.
Since that peak, the dollar had accumulated a decline of 90 pesos by Tuesday, when it reached 605 CUP.
The drop was particularly pronounced on June 26, when the dollar fell to 670 CUP and the euro to 770 CUP.
Two days later, the dollar reached 610 CUP and the euro fell to 700 CUP, levels that are repeated after the rebound on Wednesday.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank of Cuba is currently 589 CUP per dollar, below the 610 CUP rate in the informal market.
Is there another «overshooting»? The analysis from elTOQUE
The independent media outlet elTOQUE published an analysis on Tuesday regarding the phenomenon of currency overshooting in Cuba, shedding light on recent developments.
According to that analysis, the pattern corresponds to a mechanism known in economic theory: “in response to a change in expectations, whether it be an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets beyond what the real fundamentals of the economy would justify.”
The subsequent correction is also not neutral
"When the market fully absorbs the true magnitude of that change, it corrects. But the correction is never complete. The new floor remains higher than the previous one."
ElTOQUE also describes the so-called "herd effect": "People buy currencies not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
When that impulse runs out, what the analysis refers to as a "reality check" arrives: a correction that does not occur because the economy has improved, but rather because the market had overbought.
The measures of the regime and the skepticism of economists
Two factors are identified as potential triggers for the downward shift prior to the rebound this Wednesday: the package of 176 economic measures approved on June 19 by the National Assembly—which includes the authorization of private banking and a digital currency market—and the call for an advisory group of critical economists by Díaz-Canel.
Independent economists, however, maintain a skeptical stance. Pedro Monreal González described the 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" and warned that "the accounts don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like this is not a math problem, but a matter of will."
The economist Pavel Vidal, senior specialist at the Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi), has pointed out that "Cuban exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism," and has warned that "it will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope."
A deterioration that no bounce can reverse
ElTOQUE is emphatic about the limits of any correction:
"This direction depends on the actual scarcity of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, the fiscal deficit, and the structural distrust in the Cuban peso. As long as these conditions do not change, the rate ultimately ends up rising again."
The numbers support that interpretation: in 2020, the dollar was quoted at 42 CUP; by January 2026, it had reached 435 CUP; and on June 21, it hit 695 CUP.
The Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value in just six years, a downward spiral that no occasional bounce of five pesos can reverse.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of July 1:
1 USD = 610 CUP.
5 USD = 3050 CUP.
10 USD = 6100 CUP.
20 USD = 12,200 CUP.
50 USD = 30,500 CUP.
100 USD = 61,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 700 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,500 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,000 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,000 CUP.
50 EUR = 35,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 70,000 CUP.
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