In recent hours, the U.S. dollar has reversed its downward trend in the Cuban informal market and surprises this Wednesday with a rebound, according to data from elTOQUE.
The price of the freely convertible currency (MLC) has also increased, reinforcing its upward trend.
At 7:00 a.m. (Cuban local time), the dollar is sold on average for 610 CUP on the street in Cuba, exactly recovering what was lost on Tuesday.
In the case of the MLC, it also scales by five units and is set at 500 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The euro, for its part, has recorded its third consecutive day without changes and remains at 700 CUP.
Exchange rate today 01/07/2026 - 7:41 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 610 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 700 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 500 CUP.
A rebound after the drop from historic highs
This upward movement comes after a sustained correction that began on June 21, when the dollar reached its historic high of 695 CUP and the euro approached 800 CUP.
From that peak, the dollar had dropped by 90 pesos by Tuesday, when it reached 605 CUP.
The decline was especially pronounced on June 26, when the dollar fell to 670 CUP and the euro to 770 CUP.
Two days later, the dollar reached 610 CUP and the euro fell to 700 CUP, levels that are repeated after the rebound on Wednesday.
The official exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Cuba is at 589 CUP per dollar this Wednesday, below the 610 CUP found in the informal market.
Another «overshooting»? The analysis from elTOQUE
The independent medium elTOQUE published an analysis on Tuesday regarding the phenomenon of currency overshooting in Cuba, shedding light on the behavior observed in recent weeks.
According to this analysis, the pattern responds to a mechanism known in economic theory: “in the face of a change in expectations, whether it be an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets more than what the real fundamentals of the economy would justify.”
The subsequent correction is not neutral either
"When the market fully absorbs the true magnitude of that change, it corrects. But the correction is never complete. The new floor is always higher than the previous one."
ElTOQUE also describes the so-called "herd effect": "People buy foreign currency not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
When that impulse wears off, what the analysis refers to as a "reality check" arrives: a correction that does not reflect an improvement in the economy, but rather that the market had been overbought.
The regime's measures and the skepticism of economists
Two factors are highlighted as possible triggers for the downward trend prior to the rebound this Wednesday: the package of 176 economic measures approved on June 19 by the National Assembly —which includes authorization for private banking and a digital exchange market— and the summoning of a group of critical economists by Díaz-Canel.
Independent economists, however, maintain a skeptical stance. Pedro Monreal González referred to the 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" and warned that "the numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like it's not a problem of math, but of will."
The economist Pavel Vidal, senior specialist at the Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi), has noted that "Cuban exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism," and has warned that "it will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope."
A deterioration that no rebound can reverse
ElTOQUE is emphatic about the limits of any correction:
"This direction depends on the actual scarcity of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, the fiscal deficit, and the structural distrust in the Cuban peso. As long as these conditions remain unchanged, the rate will inevitably rise again."
The numbers support that reading: in 2020 the dollar was valued at 42 CUP; by January 2026, it had reached 435 CUP; and on June 21, it hit 695 CUP.
The Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value in just six years, a downward spiral that no temporary rebound of five pesos can reverse.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates of this July 1:
1 USD = 610 CUP.
5 USD = 3050 CUP.
10 USD = 6100 CUP.
20 USD = 12,200 CUP.
50 USD = 30,500 CUP.
100 USD = 61,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 700 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,500 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,000 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,000 CUP.
50 EUR = 35,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 70,000 CUP.
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