Pedro Monreal: "The 176 measures are a 'monster,' perhaps more of a deformed hybrid."

The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal González described the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly this Friday as «a “monster” (perhaps more of a deformed hybrid)», in an analysis published on his page «The State as such».

Paraphrasing the Marxist philosopher Antonio Gramsci, he described the package as something that emerges "in that chiaroscuro" of an apparent transition in the economic model that the regime officially proclaims, and compared it to "bathing in the Jordan" without relinquishing the essentials of the past.

For Monreal, the list—which distinguishes itself from a true reform package—"sells" a partial privatization of the model, but bases it on a view of private property as a privilege or revocable concession, "instrumental and subordinate to political power," rather than as a right.

One of the most concrete arguments in his analysis points to the repeated use of the verb "allow" in the document: the word appears 29 times in the text. "'Allow' is a permissive stance of power ('I let you have it')," Monreal wrote, emphasizing that this logic is radically different from the legal recognition of an inalienable right.

"In none of the 176 measures is it possible to identify a substantive recognition of the right to private property," stated the economist. For such recognition to exist, he argued, there would also need to be a legal limitation on state power, so that expropriation would be exceptional and subject to due process.

Monreal also pointed out what the document omits: terms such as private property protection, commercial arbitration, negotiated dispute resolution, claim, or compensation. Those words, he warned, are "essential for the level of private activity that the document seems to long for."

During the initial presentation, it was announced that approximately 180 legal norms would need to be reviewed and developed, but Monreal deemed it "unlikely" that this process will incorporate the perspective of property rights necessary for the private expansion that the package appears to aim for.

The 176 measures were approved on June 19 by the National Assembly and presented by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz as the largest structural reform initiative since the Special Period, grouped into 23 axes that include private banking, foreign investment, and partial dollarization.

Marrero Cruz himself acknowledged before the Assembly that the package will create "contradictions" that the regime will have to resolve on the fly, while Miguel Díaz-Canel clarified: "We are not renouncing socialism." The U.S. Department of State was more direct and referred to the reforms as "superficial smoke signals", stating that these are modest measures and have arrived exceedingly late.

The analysis by Monreal comes at the worst economic moment for Cuba in decades: the island has experienced a contraction exceeding 26% since 2020, with blackouts lasting between 20 and 40 consecutive hours, a real inflation rate close to 70% in informal markets, and an average salary of just 15 dollars per month.

The economist had previously warned about the "anti-worker" nature of the package, which turns employees of state-owned enterprises into "lambs for the slaughter." This warning gains more significance alongside another revealing omission: the document does not mention at any point GAESA, the military-financial conglomerate that controls key sectors of the Cuban economy, as pointed out by economist Mauricio de Miranda.

Monreal is part of the Cuba Transformación group, which has developed an alternative proposal for a social market economy based on a democratic rule of law and which clarified that its proposal is not aimed at the current Cuban government, which in itself reveals how far the reality of the island is from any genuine structural reform.