The former governor of the state of Carabobo, Venezuelan economist Henrique Salas Römer Senior, 90 years old, predicted in an interview with CiberCuba that the island will undergo a political change in 2027, before Venezuela manages to stabilize, which, according to his projection, will occur in early 2028.
Salas Römer, a Yale graduate and former Venezuelan presidential candidate in 1998, was straightforward in setting that time frame. "I believe that 2027 is the year Cuba will emerge from this."
When journalist Tania Costa expressed surprise at the distant deadline, the economist appealed to realism. "Look, I don't want to provoke disillusionment; what you ask for is realism. And I can't do anything else but analyze without letting my emotions get in the way. To see things without passion."
His main argument is that Washington will not take high-risk measures against Cuba while the internal electoral process in the United States is underway, scheduled for November of this year. "I believe that the United States will not take action while this election is occurring. It starts in November, then comes Christmas," he explained, referring to the midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
This political calendar conditions, according to Salas Römer, any significant action by the Trump Administration towards the island, at least until early 2027. The approval rating of Trump is around 34-37% and analysts give the Democrats about an 81% chance of regaining the House of Representatives, which reduces the political leeway for high-cost ventures before that date.
Cuba is experiencing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis in 2026, with power outages lasting up to 25 consecutive hours, over 96,000 postponed surgeries, only 30% of the essential medicines available, and 33.9% of households facing persistent hunger.
Salas Römer also drew a parallel with Venezuela, estimating the number of missing persons there to be between 60,000 and 70,000, and warned that Cuba faces an even greater challenge: four generations have grown up under the regime with no living memory of what the country was like before 1959.
In calculating the years that have passed, the economist did not hide his indignation: "How many years have gone by? 59, right? 68. In the year 27, it's 68. What is said? Soon? Well, it's more or less 68 years. Too much. Too much, right? Too much, too much."
The analysis by Salas Römer aligns with the perspective of the Cuban Democratic Alliance, which has published a Provisional Electoral Law intended for electoral processes in 2027-2028, and with prediction platforms that placed the probability of Miguel Díaz-Canel leaving power before 2027 at 52%.
The Venezuelan economist concluded his reflection with an emotional reference to the island's culture: "For the land of Celia Cruz, of Guillén, of the Sonora Matancera... Do you like Cuban music? I do. From Pérez Prado."
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